College Football · resolved market
O/U 45.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2c1cb173c9055fdd9a90f499247c9e23068452312f7f408ae8b09e62180b21cd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $156,065
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $156,072
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $156,065 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2c57…c94dbacked Under | 49c | 92,095$45,127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46,968.51 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +2.6wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Over | 51c | 86,408$44,126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44,126.11 | 818 | 47.9%392 W · 426 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7189…b454backed Over | 52c | 52,773$27,442 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27,441.91 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f13…e0fdbacked Under | 48c | 40,000$19,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20,799.99 | 147 | 52.4%77 W · 70 L | +9.7wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 48c | 4,929$2,366 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,563 | 588 | 50.2%295 W · 293 L | +23.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 48c | 4,529$2,174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,355.32 | 2,013 | 49.6%999 W · 1,014 L | +24.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa727…8289backed Over | 51c | 3,922$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43d4…13a2backed Over | 53c | 2,377$1,259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,259.31 | 57 | 50.9%29 W · 28 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 47c | 1,981$931 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,049.98 | 262 | 44.3%116 W · 146 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Under | 48c | 1,667$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$866.83 | 176 | 55.1%97 W · 79 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under | 48c | 1,406$675 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$731.12 | 492 | 53.5%263 W · 229 L | +7.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 52c | 1,046$543 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$542.52 | 524 | 49.4%259 W · 265 L | -2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 48c | 681$325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$356.47 | 1,090 | 41.7%455 W · 635 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1802…d00fbacked Under | 50c | 539.22$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$271.72 | 71 | 45.1%32 W · 39 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Under | 47c | 481.54$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.29 | 659 | 45.2%298 W · 361 L | -13.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7bf…b567backed Over | 56c | 432.93$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.44 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -15%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45c3…42f9backed Over | 51c | 392.16$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cc7…cf77backed Over | 52c | 384.62$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 66 | 45.5%30 W · 36 L | -3.6wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Under | 44c | 329.16$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.33 | 632 | 43.7%276 W · 356 L | +34.8wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +138.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x57b9…e9b4backed Over | 52c | 288.46$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec13…862bbacked Over | 50c | 266$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c2…a50ebacked Over | 52c | 230.77$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66fe…e123backed Over | 64c | 150$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.5 | 127 | 55.9%71 W · 56 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d4e…18debacked Over | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 69 | 49.3%34 W · 35 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcfe…d420backed Under | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 75 | 53.3%40 W · 35 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- O/U 45.5this page
- Oklahoma vs. AlabamaOklahoma won
- Oklahoma vs. Alabama: O/U 46.5Under won
- Spread: Alabama (-5.5)Oklahoma won
- Spread: Alabama (-6.5)Oklahoma won
- Spread: Alabama (-7.5)Oklahoma won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.