College Football · resolved market
Spread: Alabama (-5.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb044766189625e4e869a12bd96211140cc9a2685c65ca8caa5d6b5de9a9a3169
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Oklahomaof Alabama, Oklahoma
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,629
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,633
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,629 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Oklahoma | 45c | 7,545$3,409 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,135.59 | 2,013 | 49.6%999 W · 1,014 L | +24.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe509…895cbacked Alabama | 55c | 5,262$2,894 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,894.11 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked Alabama | 54c | 742$401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400.68 | 224 | 37.5%84 W · 140 L | -17.3wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x182d…73e9backed Alabama | 53c | 566.04$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 134 | 44%59 W · 75 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75a0…be02backed Alabama | 56c | 544.64$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Alabama | 49c | 313.73$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.73 | 588 | 50.2%295 W · 293 L | +23.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5834…f0cbbacked Oklahoma | 51c | 294.12$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.12 | 118 | 54.2%64 W · 54 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x45c3…42f9backed Alabama | 56c | 267.86$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…c94dbacked Alabama | 54c | 259.06$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.89 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +2.6wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Oklahoma | 47c | 238.87$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127 | 659 | 45.2%298 W · 361 L | -13.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Oklahoma | 46c | 217.39$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.39 | 302 | 53%160 W · 142 L | +10.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b3c…ffc7backed Alabama | 53c | 200$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 104 | 45.2%47 W · 57 L | -5.8wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8159…8d5cbacked Alabama | 53c | 190.19$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.8 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Oklahoma | 45c | 150$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.5 | 1,090 | 41.7%455 W · 635 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea41…2312backed Alabama | 55c | 150$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.5 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +50.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…cd84backed Oklahoma | 46c | 99.99$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 134 | 53%71 W · 63 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf491…2b48backed Alabama | 55c | 36.38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -2.1wins | -0.09per pick | 64cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d3…ada0backed Alabama | 53c | 32.08$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Alabama | 51c | 22.71$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.58 | 568 | 44.5%253 W · 315 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Alabama (-5.5)this page
- O/U 45.5Under won
- Oklahoma vs. AlabamaOklahoma won
- Oklahoma vs. Alabama: O/U 46.5Under won
- Spread: Alabama (-6.5)Oklahoma won
- Spread: Alabama (-7.5)Oklahoma won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.