Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 15°C on March 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2c2aa62f2d4c3ca15a9b124f018b740d40e1cdd5ba5097ba02e7ee47e2dbfe1b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,565
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,565 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 30c | 466.13$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.47 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 17c | 458.75$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.68 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4da2…41e5backed No | 65c | 398.65$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.13 | 99 | 29.3%29 W · 70 L | +7.2wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Yes | 17c | 384.92$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.91 | 584 | 22.8%133 W · 451 L | -26.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe48b…fdc2backed Yes | 13c | 373.99$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.72 | 619 | 29.1%180 W · 439 L | +21.8wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a19…3c95backed No | 74c | 329.42$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.02 | 428 | 57%244 W · 184 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 19c | 305.07$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.37 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6580…6fa8backed Yes | 19c | 281.78$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.33 | 76 | 28.9%22 W · 54 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed Yes | 13c | 227.98$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.87 | 336 | 20.2%68 W · 268 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 6c | 216.29$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.26 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 11c | 198.43$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.58 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95aa…fe61backed Yes | 21c | 186.04$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.07 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 16c | 163.33$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.55 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 19c | 162.23$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.4 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b1a…4221backed No | 79c | 160.92$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.6 | 144 | 42.4%61 W · 83 L | -11.7wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x46b3…d3debacked Yes | 13c | 159.54$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.36 | 244 | 14.3%35 W · 209 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 19c | 153.93$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.42 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed No | 79c | 140.27$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.68 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 76c | 129.44$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.45 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf10e…4308backed No | 80c | 125.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.25 | 236 | 73.3%173 W · 63 L | +28.6wins | +0.12per pick | 61cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0f19…e819backed Yes | 27c | 120$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 529 | 35.7%189 W · 340 L | +26.7wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 14c | 119.04$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.37 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x4912…eab8backed Yes | 31c | 116.53$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.01 | 40 | 30%12 W · 28 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6622…e28bbacked Yes | 29c | 89$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.79 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5264…9a63backed Yes | 14c | 80.71$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 740 | 23.9%177 W · 563 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4aa1…596cbacked Yes | 26c | 70.73$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.41 | 214 | 48.6%104 W · 110 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 18c | 70.06$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.78 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x69e3…2288backed Yes | 21c | 70$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.54 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 35c | 70$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.43 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 18c | 68$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.44 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9b59…f71cbacked Yes | 24c | 62.63$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 112 | 33.9%38 W · 74 L | -7.7wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a5…e304backed Yes | 27c | 61.04$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7943…27a1backed Yes | 23c | 59.22$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.46 | 320 | 44.7%143 W · 177 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x299a…9e6fbacked Yes | 17c | 58.02$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4de1…18a2backed Yes | 35c | 57.31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 435 | 15.2%66 W · 369 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6516…7b7cbacked Yes | 34c | 54.52$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.27 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -3.0wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 23c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.31 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7112…6d11backed No | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 349 | 70.2%245 W · 104 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76ae…99f1backed Yes | 25c | 49.77$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a76…5584backed No | 68c | 45.6$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.43 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a5b…67a9backed Yes | 23c | 44.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.16 | 51 | 29.4%15 W · 36 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ad…d00bbacked No | 71c | 44.13$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.82 | 490 | 38.8%190 W · 300 L | +24.4wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x203e…b7e1backed No | 78c | 43.59$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.72 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 58cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e6e…cfe9backed Yes | 26c | 43.06$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.08 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | -3.2wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x173a…eb85backed Yes | 34c | 38.3$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.09 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | -4.2wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbc0…1843backed No | 75c | 34.99$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.75 | 143 | 72%103 W · 40 L | +6.5wins | +0.05per pick | 67cpaid | +1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x70ab…c998backed Yes | 34c | 32.22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.86 | 61 | 37.7%23 W · 38 L | +5.9wins | +0.10per pick | 28cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6c2b…36f4backed No | 77c | 31.28$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.19 | 73 | 47.9%35 W · 38 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 63c | 27.4$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.14 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b81…b68bbacked No | 78c | 22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.84 | 46 | 52.2%24 W · 22 L | -4.7wins | -0.10per pick | 62cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcc8f…cf0fbacked No | 79c | 18.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.96 | 86 | 40.7%35 W · 51 L | -9.2wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4c7e…35e7backed No | 62c | 18.19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.92 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x288a…19f4backed No | 65c | 16.11$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.65 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1348…7037backed No | 80c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.02 | 176 | 65.9%116 W · 60 L | +12.7wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf261…bc9dbacked No | 79c | 14.44$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.05 | 55 | 23.6%13 W · 42 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 15°C on March 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 11°C on March 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 12°C on March 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 13°C on March 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 14°C on March 15?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 16°C or higher on March 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.