Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 13°C on March 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x37b266cac8e3f3c78442cb6f296ac51b71a1678c1b8e768c8170a7b3eb0d3292
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,189
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,189 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf4ad…d00bbacked Yes | 1c | 919.97$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.28 | 490 | 38.8%190 W · 300 L | +24.4wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe48b…fdc2backed Yes | 27c | 493.59$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.93 | 619 | 29.1%180 W · 439 L | +21.8wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 6c | 404$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.55 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6580…6fa8backed Yes | 27c | 391.05$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.74 | 76 | 28.9%22 W · 54 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7280…65d2backed Yes | 30c | 370.1$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.03 | 220 | 23.6%52 W · 168 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 70c | 361.93$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.32 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Yes | 8c | 342.42$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.84 | 584 | 22.8%133 W · 451 L | -26.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 29c | 329.61$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.52 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d8c…0977backed Yes | 40c | 325.84$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.71 | 63 | 15.9%10 W · 53 L | -5.3wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 68c | 320.56$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.54 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 31c | 314.58$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.23 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed Yes | 8c | 291.1$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.18 | 328 | 18.3%60 W · 268 L | +15.8wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 71c | 269.21$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.86 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee54…c2dfbacked Yes | 39c | 259.61$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.22 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x766e…75f6backed Yes | 6c | 232.67$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.61 | 165 | 18.2%30 W · 135 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf93d…f36dbacked Yes | 24c | 224.01$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.16 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 18c | 221.57$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.59 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 24c | 205.9$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.37 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70ab…c998backed Yes | 10c | 205.76$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.25 | 61 | 37.7%23 W · 38 L | +5.9wins | +0.10per pick | 28cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 68c | 193.11$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.79 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 17c | 180$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.15 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xafaf…572dbacked Yes | 19c | 161.36$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.12 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 79c | 160.07$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.09 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 66c | 155.84$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.34 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1dfe…b4f9backed No | 60c | 150$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 65 | 50.8%33 W · 32 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb547…190dbacked Yes | 26c | 121$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.46 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae47…638dbacked No | 70c | 117.63$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.62 | 525 | 71.2%374 W · 151 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 12c | 115.64$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.41 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x1230…8e43backed No | 66c | 113.38$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.38 | 151 | 55.6%84 W · 67 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1600…9236backed Yes | 27c | 107.57$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.57 | 354 | 32.5%115 W · 239 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 26c | 107.22$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.36 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf41…fe4dbacked Yes | 26c | 106$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.56 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6372…4a25backed No | 74c | 101.37$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.37 | 410 | 70.5%289 W · 121 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 78c | 100.8$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.95 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 11c | 99.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7396…b89cbacked No | 79c | 96.15$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.09 | 107 | 80.4%86 W · 21 L | +6.8wins | +0.06per pick | 74cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce2…80edbacked Yes | 33c | 90.42$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 42 | 23.8%10 W · 32 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 60c | 84.24$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.69 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b59…f71cbacked Yes | 20c | 80.5$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 112 | 33.9%38 W · 74 L | -7.7wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 28c | 80$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.6 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b6c…d8cdbacked No | 69c | 75.55$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.12 | 73 | 75.3%55 W · 18 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 73cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 30c | 70$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.1 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 76c | 65.8$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.01 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4156…997ebacked Yes | 29c | 63.11$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.18 | 86 | 36%31 W · 55 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a5b…67a9backed Yes | 19c | 62.53$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 51 | 29.4%15 W · 36 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 76c | 59.77$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.35 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x562b…a1a0backed No | 74c | 55$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c7e…35e7backed Yes | 28c | 53.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xade1…9040backed Yes | 28c | 53.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 338 | 39.9%135 W · 203 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8a…edf9backed Yes | 38c | 52.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.82 | 76 | 38.2%29 W · 47 L | -8.0wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd333…53f9backed Yes | 24c | 50.79$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 89 | 34.8%31 W · 58 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3319…977abacked Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 264 | 26.9%71 W · 193 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bba…a2eabacked Yes | 32c | 41$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.02 | 182 | 55.5%101 W · 81 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf618…6a90backed No | 63c | 39.72$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.72 | 58 | 58.6%34 W · 24 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b40…96e3backed No | 65c | 35$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 522 | 45%235 W · 287 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 75c | 33.36$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.36 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ebe…4a6abacked No | 74c | 33$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.58 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76d8…4a3abacked No | 74c | 33$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.58 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81a2…5cdabacked No | 63c | 31.72$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.73 | 58 | 72.4%42 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 73cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 72c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 540 | 37.4%202 W · 338 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9770…d57dbacked No | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 486 | 72%350 W · 136 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6cdb…db7abacked No | 74c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +48.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd03…932fbacked Yes | 38c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 41 | 26.8%11 W · 30 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67d1…03e6backed No | 74c | 26$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.76 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 70c | 25.97$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.91 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x368c…e8d5backed No | 64c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.95 | 62 | 43.5%27 W · 35 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b63…61f3backed Yes | 41c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b5e…7696backed No | 74c | 22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.72 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 76cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5339…4f99backed No | 66c | 21.35$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.29 | 37 | 75.7%28 W · 9 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 72cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3718…663ebacked No | 75c | 21.27$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.33 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 63cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8abc…9e55backed No | 68c | 21.06$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.76 | 48 | 72.9%35 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 73cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6eff…f370backed No | 70c | 18.45$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.45 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 71cpaid | +12%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9be2…cba5backed No | 70c | 17.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.39 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | -4.1wins | -0.15per pick | 74cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9bda…439fbacked No | 74c | 16.82$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.32 | 594 | 40.6%241 W · 353 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…88f7backed No | 74c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1df1…ab0abacked No | 74c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.64 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 13°C on March 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 11°C on March 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 12°C on March 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 14°C on March 15?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 15°C on March 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 16°C or higher on March 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.