TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 14°C on March 15?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$24,569

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,569 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 98 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x0a19…3c95backed No38c984.14$376 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$376.2342857%244 W · 184 L+8.9wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+7.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x53fe…5b95backed No3c873.38$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.451421.4%3 W · 11 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick19cpaid-62.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6580…6fa8backed Yes46c749.28$345 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$404.147628.9%22 W · 54 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-4.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x286d…825abacked No56c659.78$370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$370.2562555.2%345 W · 280 L-12.1wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-8.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1c78…42e6backed No13c518.52$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.9959742%251 W · 346 L+96.8wins+0.16per pick26cpaid+31.7%equal weight67+0.16 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes60c466.73$280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$187.176,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes45c396.39$178 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$218.137,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf6f7…e0dabacked No34c392.11$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.661,86123.8%443 W · 1,418 L+47.9wins+0.03per pick21cpaid+13.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1348…7037backed Yes72c381.57$273 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.4917665.9%116 W · 60 L+12.7wins+0.07per pick59cpaid+18.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes34c371.08$127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$244.3117,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe48b…fdc2backed Yes48c356.79$171 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$186.2461929.1%180 W · 439 L+21.8wins+0.04per pick26cpaid+0.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2518…8640backed Yes68c300$204 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$961758.8%10 W · 7 L+2.1wins+0.12per pick46cpaid+19.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x91d9…141dbacked No52c265.3$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.071,25638.2%480 W · 776 L+53.3wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x43b1…aba6backed Yes59c258.84$152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.3577428.6%221 W · 553 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-24.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf93d…f36dbacked Yes42c224.18$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.71717.6%3 W · 14 L-1.2wins-0.07per pick25cpaid-32.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x993f…35cbbacked No54c222.8$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.221,84263.5%1,170 W · 672 L-42.5wins-0.02per pick66cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1c26…6e31backed No23c205.81$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.4386050.9%438 W · 422 L+29.9wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xee54…c2dfbacked Yes49c204.4$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.42532%8 W · 17 L-2.0wins-0.08per pick40cpaid+4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x84d7…298fbacked No19c200.17$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.7258422.8%133 W · 451 L-26.5wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-52.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xdf40…38b8backed No12c200$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.6758349.4%288 W · 295 L+13.4wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5327…86cbbacked Yes79c199.05$158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.222673.1%19 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick73cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9b59…f71cbacked Yes67c192.71$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.7111233.9%38 W · 74 L-7.7wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-28.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xc550…dbe8backed Yes78c192.12$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.124353.5%23 W · 20 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+11%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No56c175.34$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.178,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0a5b…67a9backed Yes75c141.85$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.095129.4%15 W · 36 L-1.9wins-0.04per pick33cpaid-24.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5499…cf6dbacked Yes73c136.2$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.225037.6%94 W · 156 L0.0wins0.00per pick38cpaid+36.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes58c126.71$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.9970133.5%235 W · 466 L+13.4wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+7.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed No40c124.89$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.561,59230.8%491 W · 1,101 L-6.4wins0.00per pick31cpaid-24.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe92d…bffcbacked Yes53c122.51$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.511947.4%9 W · 10 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-16.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No31c120.51$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.267,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x3906…f74bbacked No27c120$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.46053.3%32 W · 28 L+2.8wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+5.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa42b…92e0backed No42c115.83$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.376349.2%31 W · 32 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd3ec…bfd5backed Yes77c109.83$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.851100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xafaf…572dbacked Yes59c100.78$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.823946.2%18 W · 21 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick43cpaid-1.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No38c100.14$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.4512,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x101b…ea62backed Yes63c100$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$371050%5 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-8.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1dfe…b4f9backed No70c91.64$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.156550.8%33 W · 32 L+2.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-10.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdd8a…edf9backed Yes29c90$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.867638.2%29 W · 47 L-8.0wins-0.11per pick49cpaid-14.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xad13…7ed6backed No61c85.78$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.3391967%616 W · 303 L-10.6wins-0.01per pick68cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0f19…e819backed Yes61c80$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.252935.7%189 W · 340 L+26.7wins+0.05per pick31cpaid+24%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xdbb8…f7debacked No25c78.67$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.0218316.4%30 W · 153 L+6.6wins+0.04per pick13cpaid-14.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8638…2d36backed No54c75.24$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.6212954.3%70 W · 59 L-7.2wins-0.06per pick60cpaid-14.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes60c74.91$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.9157659%340 W · 236 L-17.2wins-0.03per pick62cpaid-8.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1408…b4f8backed No40c72$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.161,60542.9%689 W · 916 L-86.9wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-23.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No31c71.83$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.4912,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x59dc…1f4fbacked Yes42c71.51$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.515334%18 W · 35 L+0.2wins0.00per pick34cpaid-21.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf10e…4308backed Yes71c70.44$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.4423673.3%173 W · 63 L+28.6wins+0.12per pick61cpaid+27.6%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x69e3…2288backed Yes52c70$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.85244.2%23 W · 29 L-1.9wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-6.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7a30…37a6backed Yes44c68.05$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.0540935%143 W · 266 L-3.9wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-7.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcbac…435fbacked Yes55c65$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.258153.1%43 W · 38 L+3.4wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+9.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1e6e…cfe9backed No29c64.96$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.123638.9%14 W · 22 L-3.2wins-0.09per pick48cpaid-35.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4156…997ebacked Yes49c64.47$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.658636%31 W · 55 L+2.8wins+0.03per pick33cpaid+2.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7943…27a1backed Yes52c60$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.932044.7%143 W · 177 L+9.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf1c1…1bebbacked Yes73c59.99$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.927648.6%134 W · 142 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe2ba…882abacked Yes46c56.67$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.6966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.7wins+0.18per pick48cpaid+39.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x288a…19f4backed No51c56.47$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.84946.9%23 W · 26 L0.0wins0.00per pick47cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdbc0…1843backed No50c55$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.514372%103 W · 40 L+6.5wins+0.05per pick67cpaid+1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x29a5…fe58backed Yes77c51.79$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.794630.4%14 W · 32 L-1.7wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-22%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4cee…507abacked Yes76c51.78$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.244465.9%29 W · 15 L-3.4wins-0.08per pick74cpaid-7.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf4d6…8f66backed No46c51.54$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.7118052.8%95 W · 85 L+9.7wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+10.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3735…5a5bbacked No52c51.01$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.5315136.4%55 W · 96 L-11.3wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-36%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa3fa…cdb2backed Yes52c50$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$248834.1%30 W · 58 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-24.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2986…b3a9backed No30c49.99$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152,99531.4%940 W · 2,055 L+41.6wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3865…fcbebacked No51c49.02$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251,00260.9%610 W · 392 L-26.2wins-0.03per pick63cpaid-7.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x65c4…7ea4backed Yes41c48.75$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.7555942.6%238 W · 321 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5f61…840abacked Yes77c47.44$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.9137570.7%265 W · 110 L+62.7wins+0.17per pick54cpaid+32.8%equal weight67+0.16 edge/pick
0x59fe…14fdbacked No35c41.55$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.7457232.9%188 W · 384 L-104.6wins-0.18per pick51cpaid-45.9%equal weight31-0.18 edge/pick
0x3bba…a2eabacked Yes46c41.01$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.3218255.5%101 W · 81 L+0.3wins0.00per pick55cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4b40…96e3backed No55c41$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.5552245%235 W · 287 L-13.2wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-14.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb31e…6a43backed Yes49c40.79$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.795538.2%21 W · 34 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0461…fcbcbacked Yes43c40$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.872466.2%479 W · 245 L+33.6wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+4.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2dca…4bc5backed Yes63c39.76$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.763262.5%20 W · 12 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick65cpaid-7.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3e8f…5613backed Yes72c38.97$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.971931.6%6 W · 13 L-1.8wins-0.10per pick41cpaid-33.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf261…bc9dbacked Yes78c37.04$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.155523.6%13 W · 42 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick24cpaid-23.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6516…7b7cbacked Yes61c36$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.042433.3%8 W · 16 L-3.0wins-0.13per pick46cpaid-34.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x91f2…e2d7backed Yes51c35.08$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.1916548.5%80 W · 85 L+5.8wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+15.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x09c5…9e8abacked Yes29c34.18$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.1821333.8%72 W · 141 L-4.4wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-12.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6ac7…744dbacked Yes59c33.63$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.632669.2%18 W · 8 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick68cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ba5…dc25backed Yes75c33$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.252657.7%15 W · 11 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-10.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4b03…b766backed Yes77c32.44$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.44250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick70cpaid-35.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x306d…7a38backed Yes51c30$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.766735.4%236 W · 431 L+14.2wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+11.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1131…a2c3backed Yes51c30$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.792157.1%12 W · 9 L+1.9wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+15.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf114…6eccbacked Yes69c28.08$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.641,09074.2%809 W · 281 L+179.3wins+0.16per pick58cpaid+34.1%equal weight68+0.16 edge/pick
0x4c7e…35e7backed Yes48c28$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.562751.9%14 W · 13 L+2.1wins+0.08per pick44cpaid+0.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcc8f…cf0fbacked Yes55c27.07$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.078640.7%35 W · 51 L-9.2wins-0.11per pick51cpaid-20.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xfb2e…889fbacked Yes75c26.12$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.6340525.2%102 W · 303 L+8.0wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x86fb…9065backed Yes50c25.38$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.69450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+25.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x03e4…2d3dbacked Yes45c25$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.754850%24 W · 24 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4248…60abbacked No58c25$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.442,21958.7%1,303 W · 916 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No53c24.65$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.963,17562.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L+12.6wins0.00per pick62cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x64bd…82cfbacked No64c23.61$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.1118761%114 W · 73 L-6.0wins-0.03per pick64cpaid-7.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd98d…1179backed Yes55c21$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.4523231%72 W · 160 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick29cpaid-11.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x74e7…3de8backed No48c21$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.083534.3%12 W · 23 L-4.3wins-0.12per pick47cpaid-38.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6027…78a0backed Yes59c20$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.21100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+69.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0408…3d68backed Yes67c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.621262.3%132 W · 80 L+20.9wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+25.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xbd85…7a3dbacked No61c19.99$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.251,05051.2%538 W · 512 L-99.4wins-0.09per pick61cpaid-15.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x35e6…bb8abacked No54c18.52$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10922.2%2 W · 7 L-2.2wins-0.25per pick47cpaid-53.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2ed5…72a6backed Yes62c16.25$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.2510154.5%55 W · 46 L+0.2wins0.00per pick54cpaid-12.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.