Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 14°C on March 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x59ae7cd8d5cdbfad625e3eddf58e66c0ce077c803c4bb2059c761783ac090afe
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,569
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,569 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 98 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0a19…3c95backed No | 38c | 984.14$376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$376.23 | 428 | 57%244 W · 184 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53fe…5b95backed No | 3c | 873.38$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.45 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6580…6fa8backed Yes | 46c | 749.28$345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$404.14 | 76 | 28.9%22 W · 54 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked No | 56c | 659.78$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370.25 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 13c | 518.52$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.99 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 60c | 466.73$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.17 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 45c | 396.39$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.13 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked No | 34c | 392.11$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.66 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1348…7037backed Yes | 72c | 381.57$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.49 | 176 | 65.9%116 W · 60 L | +12.7wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 34c | 371.08$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.31 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe48b…fdc2backed Yes | 48c | 356.79$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.24 | 619 | 29.1%180 W · 439 L | +21.8wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2518…8640backed Yes | 68c | 300$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +2.1wins | +0.12per pick | 46cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked No | 52c | 265.3$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.07 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 59c | 258.84$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.35 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf93d…f36dbacked Yes | 42c | 224.18$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.7 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 54c | 222.8$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.22 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 23c | 205.81$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.43 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee54…c2dfbacked Yes | 49c | 204.4$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.4 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked No | 19c | 200.17$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.72 | 584 | 22.8%133 W · 451 L | -26.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 12c | 200$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.67 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5327…86cbbacked Yes | 79c | 199.05$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.22 | 26 | 73.1%19 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 73cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b59…f71cbacked Yes | 67c | 192.71$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.71 | 112 | 33.9%38 W · 74 L | -7.7wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc550…dbe8backed Yes | 78c | 192.12$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.12 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 56c | 175.34$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.17 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a5b…67a9backed Yes | 75c | 141.85$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.09 | 51 | 29.4%15 W · 36 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5499…cf6dbacked Yes | 73c | 136.2$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.2 | 250 | 37.6%94 W · 156 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 58c | 126.71$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.99 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 40c | 124.89$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.56 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe92d…bffcbacked Yes | 53c | 122.51$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.51 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 31c | 120.51$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.26 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x3906…f74bbacked No | 27c | 120$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.4 | 60 | 53.3%32 W · 28 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa42b…92e0backed No | 42c | 115.83$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.37 | 63 | 49.2%31 W · 32 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3ec…bfd5backed Yes | 77c | 109.83$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafaf…572dbacked Yes | 59c | 100.78$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.82 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 38c | 100.14$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.45 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x101b…ea62backed Yes | 63c | 100$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1dfe…b4f9backed No | 70c | 91.64$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.15 | 65 | 50.8%33 W · 32 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8a…edf9backed Yes | 29c | 90$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.86 | 76 | 38.2%29 W · 47 L | -8.0wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 61c | 85.78$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.33 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f19…e819backed Yes | 61c | 80$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.2 | 529 | 35.7%189 W · 340 L | +26.7wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb8…f7debacked No | 25c | 78.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.02 | 183 | 16.4%30 W · 153 L | +6.6wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8638…2d36backed No | 54c | 75.24$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.62 | 129 | 54.3%70 W · 59 L | -7.2wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes | 60c | 74.91$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.91 | 576 | 59%340 W · 236 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 40c | 72$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.16 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 31c | 71.83$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.49 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x59dc…1f4fbacked Yes | 42c | 71.51$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.51 | 53 | 34%18 W · 35 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf10e…4308backed Yes | 71c | 70.44$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.44 | 236 | 73.3%173 W · 63 L | +28.6wins | +0.12per pick | 61cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x69e3…2288backed Yes | 52c | 70$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.8 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…37a6backed Yes | 44c | 68.05$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.05 | 409 | 35%143 W · 266 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbac…435fbacked Yes | 55c | 65$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.25 | 81 | 53.1%43 W · 38 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e6e…cfe9backed No | 29c | 64.96$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.12 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | -3.2wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4156…997ebacked Yes | 49c | 64.47$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.65 | 86 | 36%31 W · 55 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7943…27a1backed Yes | 52c | 60$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.9 | 320 | 44.7%143 W · 177 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1c1…1bebbacked Yes | 73c | 59.99$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.9 | 276 | 48.6%134 W · 142 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2ba…882abacked Yes | 46c | 56.67$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.6 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.18per pick | 48cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x288a…19f4backed No | 51c | 56.47$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbc0…1843backed No | 50c | 55$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 143 | 72%103 W · 40 L | +6.5wins | +0.05per pick | 67cpaid | +1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…fe58backed Yes | 77c | 51.79$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.79 | 46 | 30.4%14 W · 32 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -22%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4cee…507abacked Yes | 76c | 51.78$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.24 | 44 | 65.9%29 W · 15 L | -3.4wins | -0.08per pick | 74cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d6…8f66backed No | 46c | 51.54$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.71 | 180 | 52.8%95 W · 85 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3735…5a5bbacked No | 52c | 51.01$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.53 | 151 | 36.4%55 W · 96 L | -11.3wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -36%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3fa…cdb2backed Yes | 52c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 88 | 34.1%30 W · 58 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 51c | 49.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65c4…7ea4backed Yes | 41c | 48.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.75 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f61…840abacked Yes | 77c | 47.44$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.91 | 375 | 70.7%265 W · 110 L | +62.7wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked No | 35c | 41.55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.74 | 572 | 32.9%188 W · 384 L | -104.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 31-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x3bba…a2eabacked Yes | 46c | 41.01$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.32 | 182 | 55.5%101 W · 81 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b40…96e3backed No | 55c | 41$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.55 | 522 | 45%235 W · 287 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb31e…6a43backed Yes | 49c | 40.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.79 | 55 | 38.2%21 W · 34 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked Yes | 43c | 40$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.8 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2dca…4bc5backed Yes | 63c | 39.76$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.76 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e8f…5613backed Yes | 72c | 38.97$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.97 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf261…bc9dbacked Yes | 78c | 37.04$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.15 | 55 | 23.6%13 W · 42 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6516…7b7cbacked Yes | 61c | 36$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.04 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -3.0wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x91f2…e2d7backed Yes | 51c | 35.08$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.19 | 165 | 48.5%80 W · 85 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09c5…9e8abacked Yes | 29c | 34.18$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.18 | 213 | 33.8%72 W · 141 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac7…744dbacked Yes | 59c | 33.63$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.63 | 26 | 69.2%18 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ba5…dc25backed Yes | 75c | 33$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.25 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b03…b766backed Yes | 77c | 32.44$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.44 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 51c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1131…a2c3backed Yes | 51c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.79 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 69c | 28.08$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.64 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x4c7e…35e7backed Yes | 48c | 28$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.56 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc8f…cf0fbacked Yes | 55c | 27.07$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.07 | 86 | 40.7%35 W · 51 L | -9.2wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfb2e…889fbacked Yes | 75c | 26.12$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.63 | 405 | 25.2%102 W · 303 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…9065backed Yes | 50c | 25.38$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.69 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03e4…2d3dbacked Yes | 45c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.75 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 58c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.44 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 53c | 24.65$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64bd…82cfbacked No | 64c | 23.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.11 | 187 | 61%114 W · 73 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd98d…1179backed Yes | 55c | 21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.45 | 232 | 31%72 W · 160 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74e7…3de8backed No | 48c | 21$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -4.3wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…78a0backed Yes | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0408…3d68backed Yes | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 212 | 62.3%132 W · 80 L | +20.9wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 61c | 19.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…bb8abacked No | 54c | 18.52$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.25per pick | 47cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed5…72a6backed Yes | 62c | 16.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 101 | 54.5%55 W · 46 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 14°C on March 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 11°C on March 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 12°C on March 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 13°C on March 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 15°C on March 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 16°C or higher on March 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.