Weather · resolved market
Will Hong Kong have 600mm or more of precipitation in July?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2c65218adca3179fb5fbc7aecdf5f40308a0f51aa101060e8c5ac9f4bdf21f3e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,194
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,963
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,194 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 7c | 1,199$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.35 | 726 | 24.8%180 W · 546 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9053…fb1cbacked No | 1c | 1,110$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.98 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | +4.4wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c43…c080backed No | 27c | 1,015$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.75 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad50…3122backed Yes | 65c | 647.88$421 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.76 | 474 | 23.6%112 W · 362 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked No | 7c | 402$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.45 | 722 | 22.3%161 W · 561 L | -37.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe241…5b42backed No | 30c | 166$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.8 | 87 | 56.3%49 W · 38 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d10…a735backed Yes | 78c | 127.94$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.94 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -68%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x999f…da43backed Yes | 71c | 100$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 14c | 92.72$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.61 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Yes | 14c | 80$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.8 | 180 | 43.3%78 W · 102 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb625…415bbacked No | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 36c | 49.39$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.55 | 437 | 13.3%58 W · 379 L | -78.8wins | -0.18per pick | 31cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed No | 27c | 44.43$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 54c | 41.59$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.18 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0d3…5b5ebacked Yes | 73c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 121 | 57%69 W · 52 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed Yes | 64c | 35.69$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.85 | 583 | 58%338 W · 245 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Hong Kong have 600mm or more of precipitation in July?this page
- Will Hong Kong have between 400-425mm of precipitation in July?No won
- Will Hong Kong have between 425-450mm of precipitation in July?No won
- Will Hong Kong have between 450-475mm of precipitation in July?No won
- Will Hong Kong have between 475-500mm of precipitation in July?No won
- Will Hong Kong have between 525-550mm of precipitation in July?No won
- Will Hong Kong have between 575-600mm of precipitation in July?No won
- Will Hong Kong have less than 400mm of precipitation in July?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.