Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on August 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2c6f923c8d7199b512dc487ffe52894d97b74ee4d3fd349203ad5b673b257825
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,604
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,450
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,604 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 4c | 786.06$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$755.49 | 10,952 | 37.4%4,094 W · 6,858 L | +432.6wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd3…b441backed No | 14c | 352.85$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -3.3wins | -0.19per pick | 31cpaid | -68.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 15c | 341.01$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.95 | 1,901 | 55.9%1,062 W · 839 L | -33.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…ba81backed Yes | 72c | 213.33$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.22 | 634 | 60.3%382 W · 252 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 23c | 180.1$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.75 | 4,442 | 53.7%2,387 W · 2,055 L | -17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 8c | 150$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 6,905 | 53.1%3,666 W · 3,239 L | +422.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6c0d…0885backed Yes | 17c | 133.21$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.03 | 53 | 34%18 W · 35 L | +5.6wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +82.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 62c | 128.88$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.49 | 1,458 | 27.8%406 W · 1,052 L | +77.6wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed No | 18c | 127.55$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.83 | 646 | 24.5%158 W · 488 L | -19.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 38c | 82.11$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.97 | 1,936 | 38.1%737 W · 1,199 L | +296.8wins | +0.15per pick | 23cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 37c | 77.9$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.91 | 12,975 | 20.5%2,666 W · 10,309 L | -2,698.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x501c…4d6dbacked Yes | 57c | 71.78$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.16 | 150 | 66%99 W · 51 L | +18.9wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb12d…62b4backed Yes | 49c | 61.67$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.67 | 86 | 41.9%36 W · 50 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fe5…91aabacked No | 70c | 57.02$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 84 | 54.8%46 W · 38 L | -5.6wins | -0.07per pick | 61cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd1fc…d98abacked Yes | 36c | 55.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.82 | 48 | 60.4%29 W · 19 L | +4.5wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 24c | 55$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 814 | 57.5%468 W · 346 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b6…0d2bbacked No | 71c | 50$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.5 | 164 | 73.2%120 W · 44 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 69cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93cc…454ebacked Yes | 36c | 46.2$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.57 | 300 | 41%123 W · 177 L | +26.5wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 63c | 42.58$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.73 | 5,625 | 47.8%2,687 W · 2,938 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…bf4abacked Yes | 61c | 40.95$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.95 | 63 | 65.1%41 W · 22 L | +5.2wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfbe2…f54abacked Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 124 | 46%57 W · 67 L | -6.5wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 52c | 39.95$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.67 | 5,003 | 53.5%2,678 W · 2,325 L | +31.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaeaf…266bbacked Yes | 55c | 37.45$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.73 | 17 | 82.4%14 W · 3 L | +3.3wins | +0.19per pick | 63cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3a89…de7dbacked Yes | 29c | 36.31$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.78 | 94 | 60.6%57 W · 37 L | +7.1wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +16%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xed29…3024backed Yes | 44c | 35$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.7 | 272 | 41.9%114 W · 158 L | +15.3wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 40c | 32.63$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.53 | 12,545 | 46.9%5,879 W · 6,666 L | -39.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f07…7573backed Yes | 45c | 30.45$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.69 | 39 | 28.2%11 W · 28 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc1dc…48fabacked Yes | 66c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 147 | 42.2%62 W · 85 L | -10.3wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xea12…993bbacked No | 45c | 29.12$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.06 | 152 | 46.1%70 W · 82 L | -19.9wins | -0.13per pick | 59cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5f61…840abacked Yes | 63c | 24.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 390 | 70.5%275 W · 115 L | +65.7wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x6439…2e49backed Yes | 73c | 21.61$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.81 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bf6…2529backed Yes | 60c | 21.24$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 244 | 45.1%110 W · 134 L | +7.2wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…b6ddbacked No | 74c | 21.11$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.59 | 52 | 73.1%38 W · 14 L | +5.3wins | +0.10per pick | 63cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x08b4…624ebacked Yes | 66c | 20.36$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.87 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeef1…21b8backed Yes | 65c | 18.57$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.57 | 542 | 38.9%211 W · 331 L | +12.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bed…bbf5backed Yes | 73c | 16.36$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.42 | 152 | 53.9%82 W · 70 L | +12.7wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on August 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on August 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on August 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on August 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 31°C on August 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.