Asian League · resolved market
Al Ahli Saudi Club vs. Al Najmah Saudi Club: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2caa4b2edfa637d1ac1b57f37d9994b9ffc425f4cd6e994920d1bcb6a82c4daa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,012
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,098
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,012 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 28c | 751.09$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.79 | 5,910 | 46.2%2,730 W · 3,180 L | +50.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Over | 69c | 434.2$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.6 | 85 | 32.9%28 W · 57 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 30c | 419.36$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.89 | 1,254 | 51.4%644 W · 610 L | +9.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdebb…eedbbacked Over | 78c | 370$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.6 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +15%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8a…1fb3backed Over | 73c | 150.68$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.68 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e5a…154cbacked Over | 70c | 142.86$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.86 | 72 | 55.6%40 W · 32 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 25c | 140.43$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.18 | 1,760 | 50.3%885 W · 875 L | +32.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3880…ab7dbacked Over | 72c | 138.89$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.89 | 114 | 58.8%67 W · 47 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…e834backed Over | 76c | 136.5$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.76 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0040…9eb8backed Over | 75c | 133.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 126 | 59.5%75 W · 51 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Over | 71c | 123$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.67 | 164 | 54.3%89 W · 75 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ae2…20a3backed Over | 70c | 118.9$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.67 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Under | 30c | 118.9$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.67 | 173 | 40.5%70 W · 103 L | -9.2wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -20%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Under | 24c | 115.21$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.65 | 794 | 35.1%279 W · 515 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc65a…2e83backed Under | 29c | 103.45$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 70 | 45.7%32 W · 38 L | +8.6wins | +0.12per pick | 33cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbec3…760ebacked Over | 73c | 100$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.33per pick | 53cpaid | -72.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 71c | 100$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 297 | 45.1%134 W · 163 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfe6…49f8backed Over | 73c | 82.19$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.19 | 65 | 49.2%32 W · 33 L | -3.6wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xabb2…5a2dbacked Under | 24c | 70$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf2…d280backed Over | 71c | 62.96$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.26 | 73 | 53.4%39 W · 34 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b1e…e465backed Over | 76c | 56.5$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffe7…471dbacked Over | 75c | 53.33$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 90 | 55.6%50 W · 40 L | -5.8wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 25c | 53.33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.33 | 225 | 55.1%124 W · 101 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc770…8dbbbacked Over | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 26 | 76.9%20 W · 6 L | +2.9wins | +0.11per pick | 66cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf497…5ce0backed Over | 68c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 273 | 38.8%106 W · 167 L | -14.7wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Over | 75c | 46.6$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.66 | 968 | 46.1%446 W · 522 L | +6.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Under | 38c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 307 | 50.8%156 W · 151 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf788…6f86backed Over | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 56 | 64.3%36 W · 20 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 68cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3552…0d65backed Over | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Al Ahli Saudi Club vs. Al Najmah Saudi Club: O/U 2.5this page
- Al Ahli Saudi Club vs. Al Najmah Saudi Club: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Al Ahli Saudi Club vs. Al Najmah Saudi Club: O/U 1.5Over won
- Al Ahli Saudi Club vs. Al Najmah Saudi Club: O/U 3.5Over won
- Al Ahli Saudi Club vs. Al Najmah Saudi Club: O/U 4.5Over won
- Spread: Al Ahli Saudi Club (-1.5)Al Ahli Saudi Club won
- Spread: Al Ahli Saudi Club (-2.5)Al Ahli Saudi Club won
- Spread: Al Najmah Saudi Club (-1.5)Al Ahli Saudi Club won
- Spread: Al Najmah Saudi Club (-2.5)Al Ahli Saudi Club won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.