College Football · resolved market
Will Boise St. beat Washington St.?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2cad3c93d784dcdd0732fc3f26e4afe9663009d83dcef8c967c11478571d5464
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Boise Stof Boise St, Washington St
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,969
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,615
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,969 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4a64…4430backed Boise St | 72c | 1,654$1,183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$471.24 | 203 | 41.9%85 W · 118 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0269…cb2dbacked Boise St | 67c | 1,421$958 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$463.63 | 231 | 45.5%105 W · 126 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd057…ae9fbacked Washington St | 14c | 1,100$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152 | 80 | 23.8%19 W · 61 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9fe…366bbacked Washington St | 32c | 1,094$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 157 | 51%80 W · 77 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4eba…82c8backed Washington St | 33c | 606.03$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b3d…8db7backed Washington St | 29c | 500$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe29…63e5backed Washington St | 33c | 500$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.97 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc626…2beabacked Washington St | 33c | 303.03$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.19per pick | 33cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed Boise St | 68c | 302.99$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.96 | 78 | 53.8%42 W · 36 L | +5.7wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3f7d…4feabacked Boise St | 68c | 204.15$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.33 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Boise St | 78c | 150$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.7 | 188 | 58%109 W · 79 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb4d…2ae9backed Boise St | 69c | 150$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.5 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -2.8wins | -0.35per pick | 73cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1130…f920backed Washington St | 33c | 145.45$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.15per pick | 53cpaid | -27%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3573…b6f9backed Washington St | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe81b…edfbbacked Washington St | 33c | 78.39$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49de…4dc5backed Boise St | 70c | 71.43$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.43 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1dbd…af92backed Boise St | 68c | 65$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.8 | 96 | 49%47 W · 49 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ff…c62cbacked Washington St | 32c | 63.13$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.7wins | -0.27per pick | 37cpaid | -73%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x891b…eee1backed Washington St | 32c | 62.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad9d…9b95backed Washington St | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 60 | 61.7%37 W · 23 L | +5.9wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Washington St | 32c | 45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 473 | 31.5%149 W · 324 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…e0c9backed Boise St | 70c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 58 | 58.6%34 W · 24 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5781…95a2backed Boise St | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 63cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.