CS2 · resolved market
IEM Dallas: Falcons vs. HEROIC
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2cae15b70b5c84d0a4b4d729878ef4308bc6bd6c56655af7d519f428ff99c61a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Falconsof Falcons, HEROIC
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,782
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $47,609
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,782 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed HEROIC | 22c | 4,972$1,111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,110.83 | 1,259 | 42.5%535 W · 724 L | +20.6wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked HEROIC | 19c | 2,737$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520.11 | 45 | 37.8%17 W · 28 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked HEROIC | 18c | 1,636$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.05 | 89 | 44.9%40 W · 49 L | -4.7wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x97e1…017bbacked Falcons | 72c | 1,078$775 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$302.65 | 263 | 51.3%135 W · 128 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94a1…ec2fbacked HEROIC | 19c | 955.83$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.61 | 163 | 57.1%93 W · 70 L | +14.1wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d7…f9fabacked HEROIC | 20c | 927$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.4 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +4.1wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x482b…34acbacked HEROIC | 20c | 920$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3270…fccfbacked HEROIC | 21c | 920$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87a3…dad3backed Falcons | 80c | 675$540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e23…99d7backed Falcons | 80c | 540$432 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +55.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52f7…3a4fbacked HEROIC | 6c | 510$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.4 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 4cpaid | +56.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c5…0166backed HEROIC | 6c | 505.59$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.52 | 53 | 26.4%14 W · 39 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc26…a4b1backed HEROIC | 20c | 500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8eaa…753ebacked HEROIC | 20c | 480$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f33…b313backed Falcons | 79c | 445$352 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.45 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +77.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3cbc…9dafbacked Falcons | 80c | 445$356 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf520…0637backed HEROIC | 21c | 384.96$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.05 | 103 | 48.5%50 W · 53 L | +4.7wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x87ed…0055backed HEROIC | 20c | 350$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.97 | 178 | 47.8%85 W · 93 L | +12.8wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +11%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked HEROIC | 5c | 305.26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.26 | 295 | 47.8%141 W · 154 L | +10.7wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed HEROIC | 5c | 300$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 645 | 52.9%341 W · 304 L | +27.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a37…869bbacked Falcons | 80c | 261.53$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.31 | 75 | 52%39 W · 36 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f69…7df1backed HEROIC | 11c | 251.56$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.66 | 754 | 50.5%381 W · 373 L | +17.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40d5…bfe9backed HEROIC | 5c | 250$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 633 | 45.2%286 W · 347 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb950…4dd4backed Falcons | 80c | 225$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.25 | 567 | 38.8%220 W · 347 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0bd…6892backed Falcons | 80c | 225$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95b9…13febacked Falcons | 78c | 218.42$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.1 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -2.3wins | -0.17per pick | 56cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x288a…4275backed Falcons | 80c | 200$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7b…892dbacked Falcons | 80c | 180.53$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.11 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca86…4002backed HEROIC | 16c | 153.56$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.57 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f70…90d9backed Falcons | 80c | 125$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d03…4efabacked Falcons | 80c | 116.25$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.25 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.27per pick | 58cpaid | +56.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa07f…06b8backed HEROIC | 23c | 115.89$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c43…fb9bbacked HEROIC | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 249 | 43.8%109 W · 140 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8af…4900backed HEROIC | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 145 | 40.7%59 W · 86 L | -10.6wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x866d…4d7dbacked HEROIC | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53ab…65aabacked Falcons | 77c | 98$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.54 | 1,144 | 49.4%565 W · 579 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e39…2de6backed Falcons | 80c | 90$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1781…a0ecbacked HEROIC | 21c | 75$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b8…9104backed Falcons | 80c | 75$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cbb…fc88backed Falcons | 79c | 63.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.29 | 81 | 37%30 W · 51 L | -6.9wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8050…49ffbacked HEROIC | 20c | 60$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x218e…e49dbacked Falcons | 77c | 48.65$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.22 | 354 | 54.2%192 W · 162 L | -20.1wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde53…e5bebacked Falcons | 79c | 40.81$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 1,262 | 46.9%592 W · 670 L | -34.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26bb…6f44backed Falcons | 74c | 40.54$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.54 | 9 | 100%9 W · 0 L | +3.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +67.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8756…b36cbacked Falcons | 76c | 30.62$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.33 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +68.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x430b…45c5backed Falcons | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…509abacked Falcons | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -3.7wins | -0.12per pick | 59cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeb3c…710abacked Falcons | 80c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ac0…c560backed Falcons | 79c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.15 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +53.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.