Fifa International · resolved market
Will Mali win on 2026-03-31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2cc97ae092f9dace08ecdac9638dddef431c21fa5f139dd144ff82cb6d0ecb06
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,207
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,231
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,207 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2f4e…5104backed Yes | 14c | 714.29$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Yes | 10c | 605.33$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.98 | 4,457 | 37.2%1,657 W · 2,800 L | +31.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f3f…5878backed Yes | 14c | 574.17$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.38 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | +4.0wins | +0.10per pick | 24cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8e52…0e3cbacked Yes | 13c | 543.58$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7212…d887backed Yes | 19c | 528.95$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Yes | 13c | 515.89$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.07 | 3,731 | 51.8%1,931 W · 1,800 L | +55.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x866a…de80backed Yes | 16c | 483.81$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.37 | 42 | 9.5%4 W · 38 L | -3.2wins | -0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Yes | 9c | 320.45$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.27 | 175 | 35.4%62 W · 113 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +46.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Yes | 13c | 237.5$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.88 | 163 | 41.1%67 W · 96 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked No | 80c | 231.77$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.35 | 407 | 36.6%149 W · 258 L | +10.7wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8142…f311backed Yes | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 102 | 45.1%46 W · 56 L | +5.9wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a4b…ffacbacked Yes | 8c | 180.46$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.44 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Yes | 14c | 170.6$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.05 | 161 | 16.8%27 W · 134 L | -16.9wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x10ff…ff77backed Yes | 10c | 157$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 245 | 37.1%91 W · 154 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Yes | 14c | 154.18$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.59 | 368 | 50.3%185 W · 183 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked Yes | 12c | 149.08$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.18 | 396 | 21%83 W · 313 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b85…bf37backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 237 | 43.9%104 W · 133 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 11c | 91.45$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.06 | 56 | 57.1%32 W · 24 L | +6.9wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x741c…bf80backed Yes | 13c | 91.25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.06 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -2.5wins | -0.17per pick | 23cpaid | -82%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Mali win on 2026-03-31?this page
- Will Russia vs. Mali end in a draw?Yes won
- Will Russia win on 2026-03-31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.