Fifa International · resolved market
Will Russia vs. Mali end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0969201c11f7e2af7a2960743d2a8f6417284d694f842395bcf76e9250f45954
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,713
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,827
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,713 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Yes | 24c | 616.07$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$466.35 | 175 | 35.4%62 W · 113 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +46.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Yes | 22c | 462.14$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$358.46 | 465 | 36.1%168 W · 297 L | +6.3wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c29…87dcbacked Yes | 24c | 446.75$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$339.53 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked No | 76c | 417.65$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.42 | 2,411 | 53%1,278 W · 1,133 L | +75.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ceb…814fbacked Yes | 24c | 416.67$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$316.67 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ba…3bccbacked No | 4c | 349.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +3.1wins | +0.24per pick | 15cpaid | +126.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 52c | 286.73$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.51 | 4,595 | 40.3%1,850 W · 2,745 L | -91.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10ff…ff77backed Yes | 17c | 274.57$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.18 | 245 | 37.1%91 W · 154 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 14c | 270.7$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.83 | 2,327 | 18.1%422 W · 1,905 L | -363.0wins | -0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -63.5%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Yes | 21c | 263.17$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.78 | 368 | 50.3%185 W · 183 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7cbe…c4b7backed Yes | 17c | 243.9$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.44 | 888 | 38.2%339 W · 549 L | +37.2wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39ee…4ad6backed Yes | 48c | 209.77$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.66 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +1.9wins | +0.11per pick | 34cpaid | +16%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Yes | 26c | 200$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148 | 159 | 45.3%72 W · 87 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7681…ac03backed No | 12c | 199.96$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 63 | 11.1%7 W · 56 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Yes | 69c | 199.79$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.19 | 287 | 54.7%157 W · 130 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 76c | 194.04$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.47 | 184 | 52.7%97 W · 87 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5d8…ab9abacked Yes | 40c | 126.05$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.05 | 91 | 40.7%37 W · 54 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed No | 76c | 117.22$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.28 | 2,380 | 53.3%1,269 W · 1,111 L | +76.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91f0…c57abacked No | 77c | 110$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.1 | 108 | 63.9%69 W · 39 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd82a…5fcfbacked No | 77c | 107.4$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.69 | 119 | 51.3%61 W · 58 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Yes | 28c | 105.83$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.54 | 4,457 | 37.2%1,657 W · 2,800 L | +31.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77 | 98 | 42.9%42 W · 56 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d12…cc43backed No | 63c | 81.59$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.18 | 76 | 34.2%26 W · 50 L | -7.0wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x80a1…68bfbacked Yes | 77c | 70$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.95 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +61.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8643…a6cfbacked Yes | 58c | 64.13$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.17 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 77c | 60.5$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.67 | 167 | 55.1%92 W · 75 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked No | 30c | 37.9$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.35 | 1,559 | 52.4%817 W · 742 L | +97.8wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b4c…a32ebacked Yes | 57c | 34.83$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.83 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.22per pick | 66cpaid | +38.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda16…6da2backed No | 76c | 30.08$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.86 | 77 | 48.1%37 W · 40 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65af…df77backed Yes | 56c | 26.79$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.79 | 85 | 51.8%44 W · 41 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d08…3f86backed No | 65c | 26.21$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.15 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xafb1…0329backed No | 78c | 25.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.17 | 43 | 60.5%26 W · 17 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed No | 77c | 25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.25 | 124 | 54.8%68 W · 56 L | -8.8wins | -0.07per pick | 62cpaid | -14%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ee…8067backed Yes | 56c | 21.29$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.29 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc491…13f8backed No | 76c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -2.6wins | -0.29per pick | 74cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Russia vs. Mali end in a draw?this page
- Will Mali win on 2026-03-31?No won
- Will Russia win on 2026-03-31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.