South American Leagues · resolved market
CA Vélez Sarsfield vs. CA Boca Juniors: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2ccd5406911c876d95103001a78512f1fb09668b5bcc6e59e91d0fa6c81d2952
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $49,354
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $71,333
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $49,354 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x33a7…960dbacked Over | 10c | 9,999$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,999.1 | 367 | 27%99 W · 268 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf42d…b35cbacked Over | 33c | 9,127$3,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,126.67 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 67c | 6,027$4,054 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,053.95 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 68c | 2,920$1,975 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,975.42 | 3,405 | 51.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78bf…7300backed Under | 1c | 2,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 46c | 909.21$423 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$422.77 | 2,388 | 51.8%1,237 W · 1,151 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4157…04f9backed Over | 32c | 625$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$425 | 167 | 47.9%80 W · 87 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc23d…82c8backed Over | 53c | 594.33$318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.58 | 300 | 48%144 W · 156 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Under | 67c | 522$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.74 | 307 | 54.7%168 W · 139 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc87d…6f31backed Over | 31c | 489.65$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$337.86 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +55.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a76…b30fbacked Over | 21c | 304.72$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.72 | 63 | 39.7%25 W · 38 L | -3.6wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5773…ac11backed Under | 67c | 249.64$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.26 | 218 | 49.5%108 W · 110 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd410…bce5backed Under | 69c | 246.04$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.77 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe285…5754backed Under | 69c | 241.46$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.61 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.25per pick | 59cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe48c…163abacked Over | 32c | 184.38$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.38 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ad7…c097backed Over | 32c | 156.25$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.25 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a52…06cbbacked Over | 42c | 146.83$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.16 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.24per pick | 52cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 58c | 142.93$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.22 | 2,170 | 43.7%948 W · 1,222 L | -53.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79fd…78cebacked Under | 59c | 135.59$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 178 | 52.8%94 W · 84 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa178…11a2backed Over | 48c | 110.63$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.53 | 769 | 51.5%396 W · 373 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5dc4…5347backed Under | 78c | 100.29$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96ec…fcc4backed Over | 21c | 100$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad18…0b4fbacked Over | 31c | 98.42$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.91 | 143 | 35.7%51 W · 92 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea78…a74ebacked Over | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.15 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x418b…a741backed Over | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.15 | 359 | 58.8%211 W · 148 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc55d…9d2dbacked Under | 70c | 86.14$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 43 | 62.8%27 W · 16 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6474…7ab8backed Over | 32c | 71.88$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.88 | 77 | 32.5%25 W · 52 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9796…9032backed Over | 31c | 54.84$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.84 | 42 | 31%13 W · 29 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 68c | 54$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.81 | 2,611 | 54.2%1,415 W · 1,196 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x134c…eeefbacked Over | 47c | 42.68$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.68 | 49 | 30.6%15 W · 34 L | -5.3wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8996…15efbacked Over | 35c | 31.29$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.49 | 85 | 37.6%32 W · 53 L | -5.9wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x49b9…9613backed Under | 74c | 25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 68cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1e2…66e2backed Over | 45c | 22.42$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.33 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ac2…bb88backed Under | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- CA Vélez Sarsfield vs. CA Boca Juniors: O/U 2.5this page
- CA Vélez Sarsfield vs. CA Boca Juniors: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- CA Vélez Sarsfield vs. CA Boca Juniors: O/U 1.5Over won
- CA Vélez Sarsfield vs. CA Boca Juniors: O/U 3.5Under won
- CA Vélez Sarsfield vs. CA Boca Juniors: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.