South American Leagues · resolved market
CA Vélez Sarsfield vs. CA Boca Juniors: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3ab65dc4e4197ccc11e524733d8e91764214a51fe22a84239f11cc8a7ee4a32e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $76,329
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $112,080
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $76,329 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x33a7…960dbacked Over | 29c | 31,453$8,995 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22,458.13 | 367 | 27%99 W · 268 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 69c | 20,476$14,202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,202.39 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfff3…e2c5backed Under | 71c | 6,000$4,260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,260 | 72 | 48.6%35 W · 37 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 71c | 4,632$3,293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,293.42 | 2,388 | 51.8%1,237 W · 1,151 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x714a…9dacbacked Over | 67c | 3,520$2,355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,165.13 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 40c | 2,551$1,012 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,012.08 | 3,405 | 51.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 33c | 1,034$344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$344.31 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2dad…a040backed Over | 59c | 880.91$524 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$356.94 | 100 | 69%69 W · 31 L | +6.6wins | +0.07per pick | 62cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x460d…9d5fbacked Under | 79c | 555$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$439.82 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +76.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d84…21b1backed Under | 71c | 484.68$347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$346.54 | 270 | 50.7%137 W · 133 L | -11.7wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5773…ac11backed Under | 40c | 400$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 218 | 49.5%108 W · 110 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 71c | 278.58$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.18 | 723 | 50.5%365 W · 358 L | -24.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Under | 38c | 231.61$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.01 | 307 | 54.7%168 W · 139 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a52…06cbbacked Over | 59c | 211.78$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.14 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.24per pick | 52cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb1ef…9fadbacked Over | 48c | 208.49$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.12 | 123 | 54.5%67 W · 56 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb4…68c3backed Over | 59c | 200.36$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.36 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Under | 37c | 200$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 88 | 42%37 W · 51 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 47c | 200$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106 | 836 | 42.9%359 W · 477 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f51…41edbacked Over | 60c | 166.67$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.67 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Under | 70c | 105.78$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.42 | 398 | 53%211 W · 187 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b3…0cd4backed Under | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 20 | 5%1 W · 19 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 14cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc758…8574backed Over | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 55 | 38.2%21 W · 34 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 40c | 98$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.5 | 2,611 | 54.2%1,415 W · 1,196 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x418b…a741backed Over | 60c | 83.33$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 359 | 58.8%211 W · 148 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c44…e531backed Over | 60c | 73.21$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +67.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Over | 29c | 69.96$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.61 | 373 | 55.2%206 W · 167 L | +7.5wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2afd…deb4backed Under | 40c | 57.5$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -3.3wins | -0.30per pick | 39cpaid | -85%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 60c | 52.98$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.73 | 2,170 | 43.7%948 W · 1,222 L | -53.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6832…a476backed Over | 52c | 49.15$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.69 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe68d…a292backed Over | 59c | 48.14$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.74 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1084…744abacked Under | 42c | 47.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb180…8905backed Under | 44c | 45.72$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.26per pick | 41cpaid | -79.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcfc9…f57abacked Over | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.21per pick | 49cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4035…5e54backed Over | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 62 | 50%31 W · 31 L | -5.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfacd…d470backed Over | 43c | 24$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.68 | 50 | 76%38 W · 12 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 69cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x230b…1e27backed Under | 68c | 23.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.32 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72ee…a848backed Over | 58c | 22.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.66 | 82 | 63.4%52 W · 30 L | +6.7wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xed6a…841ebacked Under | 72c | 17.42$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.54 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 67cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- CA Vélez Sarsfield vs. CA Boca Juniors: O/U 1.5this page
- CA Vélez Sarsfield vs. CA Boca Juniors: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- CA Vélez Sarsfield vs. CA Boca Juniors: O/U 2.5Over won
- CA Vélez Sarsfield vs. CA Boca Juniors: O/U 3.5Under won
- CA Vélez Sarsfield vs. CA Boca Juniors: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.