Tennis · resolved market
Set Handicap: Michelsen (-1.5) vs Harris (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2cd0c4fb4c46fdc4e93315ea8306ced5b8015f6f5f253eee522719ef216838aa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Michelsenof Michelsen, Harris
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,247
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,248
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,247 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0a26…1851backed Michelsen | 51c | 1,081$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$530.78 | 600 | 53.8%323 W · 277 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f15…bdb3backed Harris | 49c | 838.9$411 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$411.06 | 1,149 | 41.3%474 W · 675 L | +23.6wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7547…d158backed Michelsen | 47c | 599.96$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$317.98 | 7,049 | 39.7%2,795 W · 4,254 L | -20.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a76…3c34backed Harris | 53c | 306.32$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.35 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.28per pick | 48cpaid | -67.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9015…8c93backed Harris | 53c | 182.29$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.49 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 58cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5018…1735backed Harris | 54c | 138.89$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.2wins | +0.28per pick | 47cpaid | +51.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Michelsen | 46c | 122.24$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.01 | 4,076 | 39.7%1,620 W · 2,456 L | +93.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb086…fee9backed Harris | 52c | 53.19$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.69 | 61 | 49.2%30 W · 31 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ddd…e086backed Harris | 53c | 52.3$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.72 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83f6…279cbacked Harris | 54c | 51.24$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.67 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x835c…c014backed Harris | 53c | 35.42$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.77 | 60 | 41.7%25 W · 35 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75f6…295fbacked Harris | 54c | 30.61$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.53 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.31per pick | 56cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3298…98b3backed Harris | 53c | 28.02$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6cfb…6386backed Harris | 54c | 27.48$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.84 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.18per pick | 46cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e3a…82acbacked Harris | 54c | 23.83$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.87 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9a4…3926backed Michelsen | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 593 | 66.8%396 W · 197 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea93…75bebacked Harris | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set Handicap: Michelsen (-1.5) vs Harris (+1.5)this page
- Bloomfield Hills: Alex Michelsen vs Lloyd HarrisAlex Michelsen won
- Michelsen vs. Harris: Match O/U 21.5Under won
- Set 2 Winner: Michelsen vs HarrisMichelsen won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.