South American Leagues · resolved market
Cruzeiro EC vs. Santos FC: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2d3a2080b6f482fd97ea54985d1faf65d33ff37455282ce3e5b7339126898379
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,312
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,312 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe524…d34fbacked Under | 54c | 5,026$2,714 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,312.03 | 198 | 46%91 W · 107 L | +13.5wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +20%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over | 47c | 4,937$2,320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,320.29 | 165 | 43.6%72 W · 93 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Under | 53c | 4,541$2,407 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,134.27 | 233 | 54.9%128 W · 105 L | +7.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 46c | 4,377$2,021 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,020.97 | 378 | 51.3%194 W · 184 L | +7.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 71c | 2,749$1,954 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$795.88 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Over | 11c | 967.92$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.4 | 538 | 36.8%198 W · 340 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Over | 31c | 783.95$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.38 | 140 | 22.1%31 W · 109 L | -8.6wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5cd9…51d0backed Over | 13c | 769.23$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 138 | 33.3%46 W · 92 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Over | 46c | 514.22$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.54 | 494 | 49%242 W · 252 L | +22.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e9a…a9a8backed Over | 46c | 474.98$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.49 | 119 | 63.9%76 W · 43 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 54c | 422.46$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.95 | 3,405 | 51.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1df5…1e18backed Over | 30c | 350$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 44 | 68.2%30 W · 14 L | +7.8wins | +0.18per pick | 51cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3880…ab7dbacked Over | 30c | 333.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 126 | 45.2%57 W · 69 L | -10.7wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x172d…6f3ebacked Over | 46c | 217.39$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 95 | 45.3%43 W · 52 L | -6.9wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -16%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb5…2b6abacked Over | 16c | 195.31$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.25 | 391 | 27.1%106 W · 285 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb58…86a4backed Over | 46c | 184.35$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.8 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +2.9wins | +0.15per pick | 43cpaid | +73.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x051b…09d4backed Over | 6c | 183.33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +3.5wins | +0.27per pick | 35cpaid | +75.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbaca…49e6backed Over | 45c | 124.44$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90df…a209backed Under | 53c | 113.21$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.21 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 39c | 100$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 836 | 42.9%359 W · 477 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 75c | 92.96$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.06 | 2,170 | 43.7%948 W · 1,222 L | -53.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb171…7d2bbacked Under | 53c | 75.47$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.47 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 70c | 71.15$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.35 | 2,388 | 51.8%1,237 W · 1,151 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7bb…2753backed Under | 54c | 46.67$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 63 | 42.9%27 W · 36 L | -4.9wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0e72…54f0backed Under | 54c | 46.44$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.31 | 82 | 63.4%52 W · 30 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed Under | 54c | 46.32$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.3 | 282 | 31.6%89 W · 193 L | -10.8wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a25…bb6bbacked Under | 77c | 37.52$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.71 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x67e6…86edbacked Over | 46c | 35.85$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.55 | 68 | 42.6%29 W · 39 L | -8.7wins | -0.13per pick | 55cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd35e…a1e8backed Under | 55c | 33.6$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.12 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa5…a51abacked Over | 46c | 32.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 107 | 50.5%54 W · 53 L | -6.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Under | 72c | 31.39$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.75 | 357 | 58%207 W · 150 L | +17.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x079f…a9d1backed Over | 36c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x464c…4632backed Over | 36c | 28.56$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.41 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba49…e8acbacked Under | 55c | 27.4$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.4 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -13%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc667…e68dbacked Over | 40c | 27.16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.87 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3eff…ae12backed Under | 53c | 24.79$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.65 | 97 | 59.8%58 W · 39 L | +4.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb6c5…20d0backed Over | 46c | 21.74$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -18%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Cruzeiro EC vs. Santos FC: O/U 2.5this page
- Cruzeiro EC vs. Santos FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Cruzeiro EC vs. Santos FC: O/U 1.5Under won
- Cruzeiro EC vs. Santos FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Cruzeiro EC vs. Santos FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Cruzeiro EC (-1.5)Santos FC won
- Spread: Santos FC (-1.5)Cruzeiro EC won
- Spread: Santos FC (-2.5)Cruzeiro EC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.