South American Leagues · resolved market
Cruzeiro EC vs. Santos FC: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8e1002b555169b8f459b0a0e3f9266a2a19deb58a9fa6e96364d6138f3bc3fea
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,184
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,184 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 57c | 3,630$2,070 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,560.12 | 5,762 | 45.4%2,614 W · 3,148 L | +94.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e5a…154cbacked Over | 48c | 2,734$1,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,300 | 218 | 39.4%86 W · 132 L | -9.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 65c | 2,090$1,360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$730.47 | 494 | 49%242 W · 252 L | +22.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 64c | 1,595$1,015 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$579.71 | 8,112 | 48.7%3,951 W · 4,161 L | +27.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9346…cb76backed Over | 34c | 1,248$424 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$424.32 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa2dc…b624backed Over | 33c | 1,000$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -2.5wins | -0.11per pick | 33cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Over | 36c | 881.65$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.58 | 140 | 22.1%31 W · 109 L | -8.6wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xacb4…7595backed Under | 53c | 555.45$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.97 | 13 | 84.6%11 W · 2 L | +3.2wins | +0.25per pick | 60cpaid | +48.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x62c0…06a0backed Over | 10c | 484.95$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.78 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Over | 24c | 433.87$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.89 | 538 | 36.8%198 W · 340 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 59c | 360.6$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.65 | 2,388 | 51.8%1,237 W · 1,151 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0722…fceebacked Over | 46c | 347.83$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1df5…1e18backed Over | 58c | 336.21$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195 | 44 | 68.2%30 W · 14 L | +7.8wins | +0.18per pick | 51cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb5…2b6abacked Over | 41c | 317.07$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 391 | 27.1%106 W · 285 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e9a…a9a8backed Over | 71c | 302.29$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.62 | 119 | 63.9%76 W · 43 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 52c | 281.54$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.52 | 2,173 | 43.6%948 W · 1,225 L | -55.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c86…15c0backed Over | 61c | 229.51$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x172d…6f3ebacked Over | 58c | 199.99$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.99 | 95 | 45.3%43 W · 52 L | -6.9wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -16%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 27c | 184.6$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.53 | 3,407 | 51.3%1,749 W · 1,658 L | +21.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x051b…09d4backed Over | 23c | 160.87$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +3.5wins | +0.27per pick | 35cpaid | +75.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa5…a51abacked Over | 73c | 136.99$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 107 | 50.5%54 W · 53 L | -6.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x82d9…a600backed Under | 29c | 118.52$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf46…a799backed Under | 42c | 85.38$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.52 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9787…37dfbacked Over | 61c | 81.97$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 181 | 45.3%82 W · 99 L | +8.4wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x367b…a306backed Under | 49c | 81.63$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.63 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf3d…fd74backed Over | 48c | 79.24$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.16 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8dec…60c2backed Under | 55c | 70.93$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.92 | 82 | 48.8%40 W · 42 L | -4.6wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc2b0…e756backed Over | 41c | 68.14$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.24 | 73 | 34.2%25 W · 48 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x079f…a9d1backed Over | 44c | 58$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.58 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x398d…b8d6backed Under | 44c | 56.82$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.82 | 47 | 40.4%19 W · 28 L | -5.0wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8a…1fb3backed Over | 37c | 54.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 59 | 45.8%27 W · 32 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d54…81a1backed Over | 23c | 43.52$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 110 | 36.4%40 W · 70 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90df…a209backed Over | 48c | 40.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.52 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94f9…e1b8backed Under | 29c | 37.1$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.34 | 88 | 43.2%38 W · 50 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8a4…5e83backed Over | 58c | 31.03$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -3.4wins | -0.43per pick | 55cpaid | -78.8%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb6c5…20d0backed Over | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -18%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x380c…1099backed Over | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 93 | 61.3%57 W · 36 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Cruzeiro EC vs. Santos FC: O/U 1.5this page
- Cruzeiro EC vs. Santos FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Cruzeiro EC vs. Santos FC: O/U 2.5Under won
- Cruzeiro EC vs. Santos FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Cruzeiro EC vs. Santos FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Cruzeiro EC (-1.5)Santos FC won
- Spread: Santos FC (-1.5)Cruzeiro EC won
- Spread: Santos FC (-2.5)Cruzeiro EC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.