Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Nemiga Gaming vs MOUZ - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2d3b85324762a31ecefe37cff6fb12c78d35749c158944e39bdad6db8869c904
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- MOUZof Nemiga Gaming, MOUZ
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,188
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,962
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,188 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x42b7…77dcbacked Nemiga Gaming | 22c | 1,159$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.42 | 998 | 44.4%443 W · 555 L | +21.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc0…4b85backed Nemiga Gaming | 17c | 1,023$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.06 | 1,577 | 43.9%692 W · 885 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80ba…2e78backed Nemiga Gaming | 21c | 1,010$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.95 | 885 | 39.7%351 W · 534 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce7a…fef0backed Nemiga Gaming | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 191 | 45.5%87 W · 104 L | +13.9wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfd…8d75backed MOUZ | 78c | 980.23$768 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.75 | 242 | 51.7%125 W · 117 L | +21.0wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee5…e798backed Nemiga Gaming | 18c | 879.34$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.7 | 720 | 35.1%253 W · 467 L | -24.8wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…165bbacked Nemiga Gaming | 6c | 560.83$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.65 | 1,275 | 33.5%427 W · 848 L | -15.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7032…0a8bbacked Nemiga Gaming | 19c | 494.74$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94 | 552 | 51.6%285 W · 267 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Nemiga Gaming | 18c | 364.26$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.57 | 562 | 43.2%243 W · 319 L | +14.0wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3763…345fbacked Nemiga Gaming | 35c | 343.32$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 421 | 45.4%191 W · 230 L | -11.3wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9120…ae70backed MOUZ | 79c | 289.13$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.72 | 210 | 62.4%131 W · 79 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8e…08c1backed Nemiga Gaming | 19c | 287$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.18 | 645 | 47.8%308 W · 337 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb37…7d86backed MOUZ | 80c | 286.75$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.99 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe76d…5a75backed Nemiga Gaming | 21c | 253.53$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.24 | 1,248 | 44.4%554 W · 694 L | +17.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Nemiga Gaming | 19c | 246.9$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.91 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Nemiga Gaming | 19c | 186.13$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.36 | 1,260 | 49.7%626 W · 634 L | +21.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6277…5a3fbacked MOUZ | 68c | 172.06$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.06 | 268 | 43.7%117 W · 151 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a9c…535ebacked Nemiga Gaming | 21c | 117.88$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.22 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbef…f45fbacked MOUZ | 80c | 115.58$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.36 | 22 | 81.8%18 W · 4 L | +5.1wins | +0.23per pick | 59cpaid | +58.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6a84…a46bbacked Nemiga Gaming | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 90 | 44.4%40 W · 50 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked Nemiga Gaming | 19c | 87.58$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.61 | 1,702 | 41.2%701 W · 1,001 L | -44.0wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8705…edbabacked Nemiga Gaming | 19c | 59.05$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 430 | 49.1%211 W · 219 L | +15.8wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b0c…d43abacked MOUZ | 68c | 53.85$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 212 | 53.8%114 W · 98 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52b7…0aa1backed Nemiga Gaming | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 810 | 29.4%238 W · 572 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02a4…6854backed MOUZ | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 1,797 | 55.8%1,003 W · 794 L | +37.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6376…0d2abacked MOUZ | 65c | 16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 161 | 47.2%76 W · 85 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Nemiga Gaming vs MOUZ - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Nemiga Gaming vs MOUZ (BO3) - 1win Essence Group AMOUZ won
- Dota 2: Nemiga Gaming vs MOUZ - Game 2 WinnerMOUZ won
- Game Handicap: MOUZ (-1.5) vs Nemiga Gaming (+1.5)MOUZ won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.