Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Nemiga Gaming vs MOUZ (BO3) - 1win Essence Group A
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa22f2fe606d758343697868e2f8359b250902c46c9239ab966698de7e189a829
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- MOUZof Nemiga Gaming, MOUZ
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,281
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,808
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,281 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa35c…a113backed Nemiga Gaming | 5c | 4,454$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.72 | 617 | 45.7%282 W · 335 L | -12.4wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a95…343bbacked Nemiga Gaming | 14c | 1,612$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.89 | 692 | 35.3%244 W · 448 L | +15.4wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bd9…ea45backed Nemiga Gaming | 19c | 1,167$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.27 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a47…235bbacked Nemiga Gaming | 5c | 1,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Nemiga Gaming | 6c | 918.18$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.53 | 72 | 31.9%23 W · 49 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc98f…a13fbacked Nemiga Gaming | 1c | 800$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -88.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x483a…01d6backed MOUZ | 80c | 770$616 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154 | 75 | 45.3%34 W · 41 L | -5.2wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…ea40backed Nemiga Gaming | 7c | 661.06$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.76 | 39 | 25.6%10 W · 29 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2978…4a1cbacked MOUZ | 79c | 640$506 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.4 | 68 | 73.5%50 W · 18 L | +7.3wins | +0.11per pick | 63cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9852…111abacked Nemiga Gaming | 17c | 592.22$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 204 | 52.5%107 W · 97 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbec5…8f77backed Nemiga Gaming | 21c | 500$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 78 | 35.9%28 W · 50 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec69…6fbabacked Nemiga Gaming | 10c | 496.98$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.85 | 225 | 43.6%98 W · 127 L | -12.0wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x80ba…2e78backed Nemiga Gaming | 14c | 435.39$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.31 | 885 | 39.7%351 W · 534 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc0…4b85backed Nemiga Gaming | 6c | 417.67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.06 | 1,577 | 43.9%692 W · 885 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked Nemiga Gaming | 20c | 387.19$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.44 | 531 | 39.5%210 W · 321 L | -37.2wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1791…3e87backed Nemiga Gaming | 14c | 304.71$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.87 | 146 | 52.1%76 W · 70 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x953e…79ffbacked Nemiga Gaming | 13c | 299.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.5 | 280 | 50%140 W · 140 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ac2…e183backed MOUZ | 80c | 251.13$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.13 | 249 | 55.4%138 W · 111 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ee…519cbacked Nemiga Gaming | 7c | 241$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.73 | 654 | 47.4%310 W · 344 L | -8.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40fc…498dbacked Nemiga Gaming | 15c | 160$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb39a…abedbacked MOUZ | 80c | 150$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 40 | 62.5%25 W · 15 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62a1…d53ebacked Nemiga Gaming | 21c | 142.51$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +68.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd960…1adebacked Nemiga Gaming | 12c | 140$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 339 | 45.1%153 W · 186 L | +12.3wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Nemiga Gaming | 19c | 125$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.75 | 334 | 45.2%151 W · 183 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed Nemiga Gaming | 19c | 105$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 1,013 | 45.5%461 W · 552 L | -46.3wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb01d…46f0backed Nemiga Gaming | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 67 | 44.8%30 W · 37 L | +3.7wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x95ee…e28cbacked MOUZ | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 74cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Nemiga Gaming | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 562 | 43.2%243 W · 319 L | +14.0wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a02…a770backed Nemiga Gaming | 20c | 80$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 164 | 37.2%61 W · 103 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x209e…8bb4backed MOUZ | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 805 | 44.6%359 W · 446 L | -25.8wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Nemiga Gaming vs MOUZ (BO3) - 1win Essence Group Athis page
- Dota 2: Nemiga Gaming vs MOUZ - Game 1 WinnerMOUZ won
- Dota 2: Nemiga Gaming vs MOUZ - Game 2 WinnerMOUZ won
- Game Handicap: MOUZ (-1.5) vs Nemiga Gaming (+1.5)MOUZ won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.