Dota2 · resolved market
Game Handicap: MOUZ (-1.5) vs Nemiga Gaming (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4fb48b77a5b639ee9d468839c58837ccdfe3e75a5077d08559f2d7936b069298
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- MOUZof MOUZ, Nemiga Gaming
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,738
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,749
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,738 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 10 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe84a…702dbacked Nemiga Gaming | 47c | 213.1$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 159 | 49.7%79 W · 80 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked MOUZ | 52c | 177.94$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.41 | 562 | 43.2%243 W · 319 L | +14.0wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e7c…164dbacked MOUZ | 53c | 112$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.64 | 82 | 48.8%40 W · 42 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x87ed…b497backed Nemiga Gaming | 47c | 112$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.64 | 227 | 52.9%120 W · 107 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed MOUZ | 53c | 110.77$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.59 | 198 | 57.1%113 W · 85 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc313…6645backed Nemiga Gaming | 48c | 95$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.6 | 210 | 51%107 W · 103 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca7c…e994backed Nemiga Gaming | 45c | 77.08$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.69 | 231 | 49.4%114 W · 117 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…7f73backed MOUZ | 57c | 72.46$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.16 | 261 | 54.8%143 W · 118 L | +11.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed Nemiga Gaming | 45c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.25 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -4.6wins | -0.18per pick | 46cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b9…7a6bbacked MOUZ | 54c | 30.5$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.06 | 62 | 41.9%26 W · 36 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Game Handicap: MOUZ (-1.5) vs Nemiga Gaming (+1.5)this page
- Dota 2: Nemiga Gaming vs MOUZ (BO3) - 1win Essence Group AMOUZ won
- Dota 2: Nemiga Gaming vs MOUZ - Game 1 WinnerMOUZ won
- Dota 2: Nemiga Gaming vs MOUZ - Game 2 WinnerMOUZ won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.