Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 13°C on May 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2d4d5cae916e11ceb790da003e179c1d93a4efd426a7b69c96c34fdfad824f56
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,317
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,333
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,317 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6409…9411backed No | 6c | 607.18$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.49 | 825 | 62.2%513 W · 312 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked No | 21c | 370.59$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.09 | 591 | 21.5%127 W · 464 L | -30.1wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 23c | 232.6$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.56 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 35c | 227$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.39 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbda2…97ebbacked Yes | 63c | 180$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 16 | 93.8%15 W · 1 L | +5.3wins | +0.33per pick | 61cpaid | +48%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xbcc7…dda1backed Yes | 63c | 120$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.76 | 18 | 88.9%16 W · 2 L | +6.9wins | +0.38per pick | 51cpaid | +86.7%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xe3d1…d203backed Yes | 61c | 120$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.76 | 19 | 84.2%16 W · 3 L | +5.4wins | +0.28per pick | 56cpaid | +50.5%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 22c | 109.05$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.97 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 39c | 104.2$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.6 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x256a…c1fbbacked Yes | 34c | 93.29$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.03 | 56 | 35.7%20 W · 36 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 73c | 92.74$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.71 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 64c | 92.04$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.69 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54b3…f0bebacked No | 55c | 84.64$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.56 | 82 | 70.7%58 W · 24 L | +7.0wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 33c | 81.17$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.77 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 73c | 75$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.16 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xb1e1…f5a9backed No | 68c | 73.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.31 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 45c | 73.29$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.29 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5407…dbc0backed No | 78c | 71.32$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.61 | 167 | 64.1%107 W · 60 L | -13.7wins | -0.08per pick | 72cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdca5…4342backed No | 76c | 69.99$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.49 | 76 | 56.6%43 W · 33 L | -6.0wins | -0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbd0d…1fb4backed Yes | 40c | 69.98$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.99 | 242 | 38%92 W · 150 L | +11.6wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 16c | 69.04$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.84 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 77c | 68.59$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.88 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5d…9491backed No | 73c | 68.48$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 308 | 59.1%182 W · 126 L | -10.3wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 44c | 67.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.04 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 22c | 66.82$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84c3…35d4backed No | 79c | 66.6$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.74 | 212 | 68.4%145 W · 67 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9da…f9debacked Yes | 60c | 60$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.24 | 59 | 93.2%55 W · 4 L | +21.7wins | +0.37per pick | 56cpaid | +80.4%equal weight | 79+0.26 edge/pick |
| 0x875e…e6b5backed Yes | 60c | 60$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.97 | 81 | 76.5%62 W · 19 L | +14.7wins | +0.18per pick | 58cpaid | +39%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4a…a5a5backed Yes | 65c | 60$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.12 | 35 | 94.3%33 W · 2 L | +13.8wins | +0.40per pick | 55cpaid | +79.9%equal weight | 76+0.23 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 20c | 59.62$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.7 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53bc…be7cbacked No | 78c | 56.95$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.22 | 627 | 70.5%442 W · 185 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc538…c555backed No | 64c | 55.49$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.3 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bda…439fbacked No | 50c | 51.68$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.84 | 594 | 40.6%241 W · 353 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b18…2639backed Yes | 51c | 48.5$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.75 | 438 | 42%184 W · 254 L | -14.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3808…8b90backed No | 60c | 45.31$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.3 | 85 | 63.5%54 W · 31 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda58…4e79backed Yes | 48c | 41.24$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.24 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 78c | 39.63$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.73 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 38c | 36.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…5de4backed Yes | 33c | 35.64$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.81 | 659 | 34.1%225 W · 434 L | +36.6wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f8…fcf6backed No | 57c | 35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.78 | 113 | 63.7%72 W · 41 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 67cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa84…e985backed Yes | 45c | 33.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.69 | 407 | 39.3%160 W · 247 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 62c | 31.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.83 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 74c | 31.53$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.23 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31de…03ffbacked Yes | 70c | 31.08$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.32 | 49 | 91.8%45 W · 4 L | +18.2wins | +0.37per pick | 55cpaid | +80.1%equal weight | 77+0.25 edge/pick |
| 0xbb2f…2de4backed Yes | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 35c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 41c | 29.98$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.69 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked No | 75c | 27.33$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.6 | 508 | 60.4%307 W · 201 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 58c | 25.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd43e…3604backed Yes | 42c | 25.35$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.81 | 515 | 53.6%276 W · 239 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae47…638dbacked No | 78c | 24.21$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.88 | 525 | 71.2%374 W · 151 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8454…3587backed No | 79c | 22.92$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 273 | 76.6%209 W · 64 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 76cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 79c | 20.7$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.3 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfaa3…71a8backed No | 58c | 20.53$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9770…d57dbacked No | 77c | 20.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.49 | 486 | 72%350 W · 136 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 66c | 17.84$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f7b…bc29backed No | 78c | 15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.65 | 146 | 66.4%97 W · 49 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c7…c6bdbacked No | 77c | 15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 72cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad65…b49ebacked No | 77c | 15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 77 | 71.4%55 W · 22 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 80c | 13.3$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 13°C on May 10?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 11°C on May 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 12°C on May 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 14°C on May 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 15°C on May 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 16°C on May 10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.