Tennis · resolved market
Quito: Hernan Casanova vs Luis Carlos Alvarez
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2d7231c709ea436e70c919c447a91ce78db6e3b112bf88ce204f5074f774c3a3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Hernan Casanovaof Hernan Casanova, Luis Carlos Alvarez
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,202
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,393
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,202 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0979…8d9bbacked Luis Carlos Alvarez | 23c | 13,049$3,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,000 | 147 | 57.1%84 W · 63 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Hernan Casanova | 78c | 6,800$5,274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,525.09 | 8,828 | 36.1%3,190 W · 5,638 L | -193.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Hernan Casanova | 77c | 2,640$2,033 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$607.3 | 4,185 | 44.7%1,871 W · 2,314 L | +14.9wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Hernan Casanova | 78c | 1,836$1,429 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$407.27 | 4,533 | 67.7%3,071 W · 1,462 L | +306.6wins | +0.07per pick | 61cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Hernan Casanova | 80c | 1,269$1,011 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.31 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e1…97bcbacked Luis Carlos Alvarez | 16c | 1,100$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.47 | 36 | 8.3%3 W · 33 L | -4.7wins | -0.13per pick | 21cpaid | -82.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Luis Carlos Alvarez | 27c | 506.37$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.22 | 3,871 | 35%1,353 W · 2,518 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Hernan Casanova | 76c | 500$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde9f…d43cbacked Luis Carlos Alvarez | 24c | 308$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.4 | 6,599 | 50.7%3,343 W · 3,256 L | +259.7wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8546…35b8backed Luis Carlos Alvarez | 17c | 263$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.71 | 208 | 60.6%126 W · 82 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4126…e68bbacked Hernan Casanova | 78c | 254.4$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.03 | 1,159 | 69%800 W · 359 L | +56.8wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Hernan Casanova | 75c | 200$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 4,765 | 47%2,238 W · 2,527 L | -82.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Hernan Casanova | 78c | 163.56$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.29 | 3,677 | 54.8%2,015 W · 1,662 L | +107.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xccd8…f4debacked Luis Carlos Alvarez | 26c | 148.15$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.52 | 1,475 | 35.2%519 W · 956 L | -14.1wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4060…e63cbacked Luis Carlos Alvarez | 26c | 116$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 274 | 37.2%102 W · 172 L | -21.9wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfc5b…2a5abacked Luis Carlos Alvarez | 22c | 85.64$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.84 | 169 | 55.6%94 W · 75 L | +8.4wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28be…6dbebacked Luis Carlos Alvarez | 26c | 76.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 235 | 36.6%86 W · 149 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x659a…dd33backed Luis Carlos Alvarez | 26c | 70$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -23%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42c9…9623backed Luis Carlos Alvarez | 21c | 66$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.06 | 4,703 | 49.4%2,323 W · 2,380 L | +166.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x167a…d542backed Hernan Casanova | 78c | 64$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.08 | 1,837 | 59.2%1,088 W · 749 L | +8.4wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07b1…b027backed Luis Carlos Alvarez | 29c | 63.4$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.39 | 307 | 46.3%142 W · 165 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x489d…f6e3backed Hernan Casanova | 75c | 55$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.58 | 1,831 | 53%971 W · 860 L | -45.3wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Luis Carlos Alvarez | 28c | 49.79$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.94 | 3,874 | 45.4%1,758 W · 2,116 L | -39.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Hernan Casanova | 72c | 46.99$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.16 | 4,241 | 52.6%2,232 W · 2,009 L | +65.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26d0…566ebacked Hernan Casanova | 72c | 41.67$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.67 | 485 | 52.4%254 W · 231 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d10…b3d0backed Hernan Casanova | 72c | 40.56$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.36 | 821 | 59.4%488 W · 333 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6485…a265backed Hernan Casanova | 75c | 26.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.61 | 2,281 | 52%1,187 W · 1,094 L | +82.3wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2176…bc30backed Hernan Casanova | 78c | 20.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.59 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x27b1…6a0bbacked Hernan Casanova | 78c | 20.58$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.53 | 444 | 65.3%290 W · 154 L | +15.3wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x721c…d585backed Hernan Casanova | 79c | 18.47$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.84 | 131 | 57.3%75 W · 56 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d9a…05e6backed Hernan Casanova | 79c | 15.89$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.34 | 2,085 | 44.5%928 W · 1,157 L | -51.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd155…8250backed Hernan Casanova | 77c | 14.87$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.42 | 356 | 49.4%176 W · 180 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2638…8e2dbacked Hernan Casanova | 74c | 14.19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.69 | 316 | 57%180 W · 136 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc5e…f0c5backed Hernan Casanova | 77c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.93 | 232 | 72.8%169 W · 63 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 75cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.