Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Spread: Illinois State Redbirds (-5.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2d759abe9d12448f2546b8bee9b92260bcada606eccebb6a6f6f317a20d87c3c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Illinois State Redbirdsof Illinois State Redbirds, Kent State Golden Flashes
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $36,033
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,999
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,033 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x72b4…7d67backed Illinois State Redbirds | 46c | 11,216$5,159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,056.63 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x617b…a499backed Kent State Golden Flashes | 50c | 10,156$5,066 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,065.78 | 244 | 51.2%125 W · 119 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Kent State Golden Flashes | 53c | 10,064$5,381 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,381.32 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20d6…3856backed Illinois State Redbirds | 45c | 6,000$2,700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,299.99 | 212 | 62.3%132 W · 80 L | +34.7wins | +0.16per pick | 46cpaid | +37%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x1117…3532backed Kent State Golden Flashes | 55c | 5,934$3,264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,263.95 | 98 | 45.9%45 W · 53 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Illinois State Redbirds | 50c | 5,133$2,544 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,589.32 | 616 | 52.8%325 W · 291 L | +21.6wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Illinois State Redbirds | 46c | 2,309$1,062 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,246.95 | 2,896 | 50%1,448 W · 1,448 L | +71.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Illinois State Redbirds | 49c | 2,209$1,083 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,126.75 | 2,687 | 48.5%1,303 W · 1,384 L | +4.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x360b…982fbacked Kent State Golden Flashes | 54c | 1,102$595 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$594.78 | 64 | 46.9%30 W · 34 L | -4.7wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d66…22d1backed Kent State Golden Flashes | 54c | 1,000$540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$540.12 | 74 | 50%37 W · 37 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6e7…884cbacked Illinois State Redbirds | 46c | 802.95$369 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$433.59 | 32 | 65.6%21 W · 11 L | +4.4wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x85c2…9730backed Kent State Golden Flashes | 54c | 372.86$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.34 | 246 | 49.6%122 W · 124 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x450b…11d7backed Illinois State Redbirds | 47c | 295.28$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.5 | 1,251 | 50.6%633 W · 618 L | +12.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Kent State Golden Flashes | 54c | 238.65$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.87 | 794 | 48.9%388 W · 406 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Illinois State Redbirds | 46c | 235.09$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.9 | 3,905 | 58.8%2,298 W · 1,607 L | +165.3wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38ef…8800backed Illinois State Redbirds | 46c | 232.22$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.4 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | +4.9wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x292e…172cbacked Illinois State Redbirds | 47c | 210.91$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.78 | 833 | 50.2%418 W · 415 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked Kent State Golden Flashes | 54c | 182.28$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.13 | 57 | 45.6%26 W · 31 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Illinois State Redbirds | 46c | 169.27$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.41 | 220 | 47.7%105 W · 115 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…e82bbacked Illinois State Redbirds | 49c | 161.84$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.54 | 101 | 44.6%45 W · 56 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -18%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked Illinois State Redbirds | 48c | 149.56$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.28 | 83 | 50.6%42 W · 41 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Illinois State Redbirds | 71c | 143.09$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.04 | 5,553 | 47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L | +26.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd17a…0373backed Kent State Golden Flashes | 54c | 131.84$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.2 | 218 | 50.5%110 W · 108 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x849f…0665backed Illinois State Redbirds | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 624 | 51.1%319 W · 305 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Illinois State Redbirds | 45c | 70.87$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.98 | 5,946 | 49.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L | +163.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc15…3a2ebacked Kent State Golden Flashes | 50c | 57.14$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.57 | 45 | 46.7%21 W · 24 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Illinois State Redbirds | 47c | 54.52$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.9 | 227 | 56.4%128 W · 99 L | +18.5wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8ce8…2f9ebacked Kent State Golden Flashes | 51c | 48.57$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.77 | 306 | 52%159 W · 147 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67e6…86edbacked Illinois State Redbirds | 50c | 47.64$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.82 | 296 | 50.7%150 W · 146 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed Illinois State Redbirds | 47c | 21.81$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.56 | 194 | 54.6%106 W · 88 L | +10.5wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…0f05backed Kent State Golden Flashes | 55c | 18.51$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.18 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Illinois State Redbirds (-5.5)this page
- Kent State Golden Flashes vs. Illinois State RedbirdsIllinois State Redbirds won
- Kent State Golden Flashes vs. Illinois State Redbirds: O/U 153.5Under won
- Kent State Golden Flashes vs. Illinois State Redbirds: O/U 154.5Under won
- Spread: Illinois State Redbirds (-14.5)Illinois State Redbirds won
- Spread: Illinois State Redbirds (-4.5)Illinois State Redbirds won
- Spread: Illinois State Redbirds (-6.5)Illinois State Redbirds won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.