Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Spread: Illinois State Redbirds (-6.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x978d2c0f941c033caedb0773568994c9eabd2f14407d2a85995cfac0315f8d2a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Illinois State Redbirdsof Illinois State Redbirds, Kent State Golden Flashes
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,636
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,636 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc660…bd28backed Kent State Golden Flashes | 59c | 6,443$3,801 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,801.46 | 199 | 50.3%100 W · 99 L | +7.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Illinois State Redbirds | 41c | 3,487$1,441 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,046.12 | 1,910 | 49.6%947 W · 963 L | +30.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Illinois State Redbirds | 42c | 3,436$1,449 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,987.41 | 2,896 | 50%1,448 W · 1,448 L | +71.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…b14fbacked Kent State Golden Flashes | 56c | 3,361$1,885 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,885.34 | 394 | 54.6%215 W · 179 L | +21.3wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Illinois State Redbirds | 47c | 2,755$1,289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,465.84 | 155 | 57.4%89 W · 66 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Kent State Golden Flashes | 53c | 1,382$738 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$738.14 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04d2…4c2cbacked Illinois State Redbirds | 47c | 1,139$535 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$603.63 | 157 | 48.4%76 W · 81 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66b6…159dbacked Kent State Golden Flashes | 53c | 799$423 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$423.47 | 50 | 62%31 W · 19 L | +3.8wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Illinois State Redbirds | 42c | 662$281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$381.05 | 3,905 | 58.8%2,298 W · 1,607 L | +165.3wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e9a…a9a8backed Kent State Golden Flashes | 54c | 600$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324 | 98 | 66.3%65 W · 33 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Kent State Golden Flashes | 39c | 541.47$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.66 | 88 | 43.2%38 W · 50 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20d6…3856backed Illinois State Redbirds | 40c | 444$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.4 | 212 | 62.3%132 W · 80 L | +34.7wins | +0.16per pick | 46cpaid | +37%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Illinois State Redbirds | 59c | 344.81$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.25 | 5,553 | 47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L | +26.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Illinois State Redbirds | 45c | 222.21$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.22 | 828 | 46.1%382 W · 446 L | +15.1wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8dec…60c2backed Illinois State Redbirds | 42c | 220.32$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.78 | 142 | 45.8%65 W · 77 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ce8…2f9ebacked Kent State Golden Flashes | 52c | 164.15$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.96 | 306 | 52%159 W · 147 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x782c…2445backed Illinois State Redbirds | 47c | 105.46$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.89 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +3.1wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Illinois State Redbirds | 45c | 97.94$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.34 | 3,380 | 49.5%1,673 W · 1,707 L | +30.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3437…1e5ebacked Illinois State Redbirds | 47c | 94.91$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.3 | 99 | 52.5%52 W · 47 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Illinois State Redbirds | 46c | 93.59$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.57 | 5,946 | 49.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L | +163.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7d…d1c9backed Kent State Golden Flashes | 58c | 84.75$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.58 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked Illinois State Redbirds | 45c | 83.08$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.69 | 202 | 54.5%110 W · 92 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Illinois State Redbirds | 45c | 72.27$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.75 | 220 | 47.7%105 W · 115 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Illinois State Redbirds | 48c | 65.82$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.22 | 507 | 45.2%229 W · 278 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Kent State Golden Flashes | 21c | 59.55$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.51 | 147 | 28.6%42 W · 105 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe624…2928backed Illinois State Redbirds | 47c | 55$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.15 | 408 | 49.8%203 W · 205 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed Illinois State Redbirds | 41c | 49.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.4 | 43 | 72.1%31 W · 12 L | +10.4wins | +0.24per pick | 48cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Kent State Golden Flashes | 54c | 45.85$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.74 | 1,985 | 64.1%1,273 W · 712 L | +144.2wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c5…4291backed Illinois State Redbirds | 46c | 31.6$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.18 | 134 | 57.5%77 W · 57 L | +7.6wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed Illinois State Redbirds | 44c | 26.62$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.91 | 353 | 38.5%136 W · 217 L | -18.1wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a73…de17backed Kent State Golden Flashes | 54c | 20.19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Illinois State Redbirds (-6.5)this page
- Kent State Golden Flashes vs. Illinois State RedbirdsIllinois State Redbirds won
- Kent State Golden Flashes vs. Illinois State Redbirds: O/U 153.5Under won
- Kent State Golden Flashes vs. Illinois State Redbirds: O/U 154.5Under won
- Spread: Illinois State Redbirds (-14.5)Illinois State Redbirds won
- Spread: Illinois State Redbirds (-4.5)Illinois State Redbirds won
- Spread: Illinois State Redbirds (-5.5)Illinois State Redbirds won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.