La Liga · resolved market
Will CD Castellón win on 2026-01-16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2d8e4cc897af51bd4c4657606ffbbffafcf3d79d5d946ae30e5a23711abc5170
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- La Ligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,401
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,288
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,401 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in La Liga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in La Liga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x587b…2622backed No | 19c | 1,600$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.98 | 237 | 62.9%149 W · 88 L | +21.9wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +15%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3a46…ba91backed Yes | 61c | 491.8$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.8 | 123 | 44.7%55 W · 68 L | -11.9wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 57c | 460.32$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.35 | 1,798 | 51.4%924 W · 874 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6835…1976backed No | 44c | 384.97$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.88 | 342 | 52%178 W · 164 L | +7.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 25c | 364.59$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.03 | 4,740 | 47%2,230 W · 2,510 L | -23.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed No | 39c | 309.38$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.38 | 504 | 49.8%251 W · 253 L | +7.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac98…7281backed No | 26c | 300$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 127 | 27.6%35 W · 92 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0eb8…753bbacked No | 22c | 204.55$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 104 | 16.3%17 W · 87 L | -10.2wins | -0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked No | 40c | 199.98$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.99 | 245 | 46.9%115 W · 130 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Yes | 73c | 177.56$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.93 | 490 | 57.1%280 W · 210 L | +26.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a8d…31eabacked Yes | 62c | 177.42$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.42 | 494 | 47%232 W · 262 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes | 62c | 156.65$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.53 | 118 | 20.3%24 W · 94 L | -11.5wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe1c3…7d73backed Yes | 64c | 156.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.25 | 56 | 51.8%29 W · 27 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9055…12cebacked Yes | 63c | 119.05$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.05 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +7.3wins | +0.17per pick | 36cpaid | +105.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe542…0a37backed No | 12c | 118.63$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 81 | 43.2%35 W · 46 L | +7.5wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +48.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbf8f…8bbabacked No | 14c | 111.5$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.61 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 23cpaid | -74.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Yes | 60c | 105.65$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.26 | 186 | 50%93 W · 93 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb891…969bbacked No | 39c | 100$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 209 | 45%94 W · 115 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b09…aca6backed No | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59cf…71dabacked No | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.27per pick | 53cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84ce…1ac0backed No | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dd…a04ebacked Yes | 57c | 95.5$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.24 | 32 | 75%24 W · 8 L | +5.6wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x985e…6894backed Yes | 64c | 70.87$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.3 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 74cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked No | 39c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 151 | 47%71 W · 80 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fa…51e5backed Yes | 60c | 49.33$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.57 | 84 | 46.4%39 W · 45 L | -8.0wins | -0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcefc…e5e8backed Yes | 66c | 37.06$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.76 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc4…0c92backed No | 41c | 36.93$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.14 | 319 | 52.4%167 W · 152 L | +8.3wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0157…d8dcbacked Yes | 58c | 33.48$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.06 | 142 | 33.8%48 W · 94 L | -9.7wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x06a9…1a49backed Yes | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 283 | 42.8%121 W · 162 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fb…74f3backed Yes | 62c | 32.13$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.13 | 54 | 27.8%15 W · 39 L | -5.5wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xad1b…5da0backed Yes | 62c | 26.9$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.22 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41ca…d205backed Yes | 63c | 23.81$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.81 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6952…40d8backed Yes | 63c | 23.81$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.81 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 62cpaid | +25%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec25…dec6backed Yes | 63c | 23.02$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.52 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8999…21fbbacked Yes | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +79.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e2f…1a87backed Yes | 77c | 16.85$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.85 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in La Liga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will CD Castellón win on 2026-01-16?this page
- Will CD Castellón vs. CD Leganés end in a draw?No won
- Will CD Leganés win on 2026-01-16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.