World Politics · resolved market
Christian Democratic Party (KrF) wins 4% or more of vote in Norwegian election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2da008a2b58ea4e497eb0fe9101093a776885eff723c3c48ddf1ff941b357308
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,743
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,748
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,743 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf2f6…5817backed Yes | 57c | 435$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.05 | 253 | 37.2%94 W · 159 L | +8.0wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0490…c81fbacked No | 29c | 434.47$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.98 | 143 | 30.8%44 W · 99 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +104.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x629b…995abacked No | 29c | 372.61$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.41 | 432 | 43.1%186 W · 246 L | +29.2wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 43c | 300$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129 | 457 | 23.2%106 W · 351 L | -15.8wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc89a…64efbacked Yes | 79c | 205.26$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.17per pick | 63cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed Yes | 71c | 200$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 96 | 27.1%26 W · 70 L | -7.0wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 37c | 160.11$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.68 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 33c | 150$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 549 | 34.6%190 W · 359 L | -37.0wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x805a…0635backed No | 26c | 140$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.6 | 90 | 37.8%34 W · 56 L | +6.5wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd6f4…ef6abacked Yes | 71c | 139.98$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.98 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3db…1959backed No | 30c | 128.74$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.98 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked No | 19c | 105.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 371 | 17.8%66 W · 305 L | -18.9wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd039…2532backed No | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 121 | 29.8%36 W · 85 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0845…6b6fbacked Yes | 58c | 100$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 53 | 35.8%19 W · 34 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbe5…72dabacked Yes | 73c | 75.1$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf42f…a6a7backed Yes | 59c | 54.54$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.36 | 197 | 42.6%84 W · 113 L | +7.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x712f…b93bbacked No | 41c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +2.2wins | +0.11per pick | 34cpaid | +2,378.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 35c | 37.83$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.27 | 576 | 36.3%209 W · 367 L | -27.2wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d5e…64ddbacked No | 35c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94e4…b7cfbacked Yes | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.