Olympics · resolved market
Will Ariarne Titmus (AUS) win Gold in Women's 200m Freestyle?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2da0e28e32024b116da85ae9a7a1455d0d8bc8e073d6406f79a66c3b7ab461a2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Olympicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $37,878
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,267
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,878 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Olympics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Olympics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc714…3a42backed Yes | 1c | 16,000$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 6cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93f4…e6a5backed Yes | 1c | 12,000$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 2cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb75…fd95backed Yes | 58c | 2,000$1,160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,159.99 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +58.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8c8…7407backed Yes | 58c | 1,239$723 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$723.4 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +38%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a12…01cebacked No | 44c | 1,173$516 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$657 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +6.3wins | +0.22per pick | 42cpaid | +53.2%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x105b…08f0backed Yes | 57c | 1,084$615 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$615 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -2.3wins | -0.15per pick | 42cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8e82…64abbacked Yes | 55c | 907.01$498 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$498.43 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1170…080fbacked Yes | 56c | 892.86$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +177.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…0cc1backed No | 41c | 733.66$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$432.88 | 134 | 19.4%26 W · 108 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c7d…0ab0backed Yes | 60c | 621.17$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370.22 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.14per pick | 59cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4825…007dbacked No | 43c | 406.91$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.78 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f91…907fbacked No | 43c | 337.61$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.83 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7c8…24dcbacked No | 45c | 218.98$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.44 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | +3.0wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +27%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbb…a8fbbacked Yes | 61c | 206.43$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.8 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f7d…197cbacked No | 34c | 186.52$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.28 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90e9…de83backed No | 41c | 174.49$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.16per pick | 21cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf549…1472backed Yes | 59c | 169.49$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0f3…5d4abacked No | 45c | 130$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +130.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcede…f2f6backed Yes | 56c | 100$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -3.5wins | -0.18per pick | 29cpaid | -83.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6b55…02f8backed No | 34c | 100$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.25 | 48 | 43.8%21 W · 27 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x891b…eee1backed Yes | 59c | 84.75$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2786…7b3fbacked Yes | 66c | 75.9$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7590…0c38backed Yes | 57c | 74.07$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.22 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b8…da98backed Yes | 59c | 50.79$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.97 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 65cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70cf…5b3fbacked Yes | 64c | 49.57$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.92 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc07…1026backed No | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31b4…909ebacked Yes | 67c | 42.04$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.17 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.8wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbe…0d3abacked Yes | 60c | 41.67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34cf…1b03backed Yes | 67c | 40.75$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.3 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x670b…cb5bbacked Yes | 76c | 33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 76cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e6…7ad5backed Yes | 59c | 26.07$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.38 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf494…7efcbacked Yes | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6884…517cbacked Yes | 61c | 19.95$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.17 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2974…6ec2backed Yes | 67c | 19.1$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddbd…2231backed Yes | 67c | 17.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a22…1953backed Yes | 59c | 17$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 57cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7f6…55cbbacked Yes | 67c | 16.42$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Olympics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ariarne Titmus (AUS) win Gold in Women's 200m Freestyle?this page
- Will Junxuan Yang (CHN) win Gold in Women's 200m Freestyle?No won
- Will Mollie O’Callaghan (AUS) win Gold in Women's 200m Freestyle?Yes won
- Will Siobhan Haughey (HKG) win Gold in Women's 200m Freestyle?No won
- Will another athlete win Gold in Women's 200m Freestyle?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.