Tennis · resolved market
Set 1 Winner: Fils vs Musetti
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2dde8559f2fa844f03fa2b095c4e6180b533357813e00bcdab643bc080edcf80
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Filsof Fils, Musetti
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,932
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,866
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,932 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x27b0…fc67backed Musetti | 26c | 3,000$780 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$779.98 | 312 | 34.6%108 W · 204 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Fils | 66c | 1,885$1,237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$647.91 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe80b…7e1bbacked Fils | 56c | 759.5$423 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$336.89 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Fils | 73c | 440.4$323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.49 | 7,816 | 50.6%3,958 W · 3,858 L | +95.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Musetti | 45c | 400.23$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.1 | 6,439 | 54.4%3,502 W · 2,937 L | +285.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f96…ad0fbacked Musetti | 47c | 389.48$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.26 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -3.9wins | -0.18per pick | 45cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6e25…db26backed Musetti | 50c | 388$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194 | 825 | 60.5%499 W · 326 L | -11.2wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69b9…a5d5backed Fils | 65c | 230.01$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.17 | 196 | 57.1%112 W · 84 L | +12.6wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x95b8…47c9backed Fils | 52c | 217.04$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.18 | 284 | 43%122 W · 162 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8d3…acf8backed Musetti | 54c | 188.81$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.11 | 120 | 30%36 W · 84 L | -8.8wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xda74…1ab0backed Fils | 53c | 183.36$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.18 | 945 | 49.6%469 W · 476 L | -23.7wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0764…41d1backed Fils | 71c | 171.95$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.56 | 234 | 57.3%134 W · 100 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x796c…49dbbacked Fils | 74c | 169.84$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.16 | 84 | 48.8%41 W · 43 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bc0…af1abacked Musetti | 35c | 162.44$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.85 | 138 | 30.4%42 W · 96 L | -6.1wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d05…f729backed Musetti | 48c | 134.31$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.47 | 423 | 44.2%187 W · 236 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…13f4backed Fils | 74c | 132.93$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.56 | 148 | 51.4%76 W · 72 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfa8…6e47backed Fils | 74c | 131.7$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.24 | 100 | 57%57 W · 43 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x34f9…12ebbacked Musetti | 47c | 107.06$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.32 | 184 | 30.4%56 W · 128 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x272d…bc2fbacked Fils | 53c | 97.18$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.67 | 366 | 57.7%211 W · 155 L | +7.8wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Fils | 65c | 94.59$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.11 | 3,677 | 54.8%2,015 W · 1,662 L | +107.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Fils | 48c | 75$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 1,151 | 48.7%560 W · 591 L | +8.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed Fils | 52c | 74.71$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.86 | 1,142 | 47.3%540 W · 602 L | +65.6wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8724…c059backed Musetti | 54c | 72.17$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.97 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | -3.7wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x65cf…5cdebacked Musetti | 50c | 71.7$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.87 | 226 | 46%104 W · 122 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Musetti | 47c | 64.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.54 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d85…2560backed Fils | 55c | 60$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.15 | 269 | 51.3%138 W · 131 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc33d…0d40backed Musetti | 46c | 59.92$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.27 | 653 | 46.4%303 W · 350 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Fils | 64c | 55.3$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.15 | 4,765 | 47%2,238 W · 2,527 L | -82.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26d0…566ebacked Fils | 74c | 39.91$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.38 | 485 | 52.4%254 W · 231 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8e…08c1backed Fils | 73c | 37.13$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.1 | 2,118 | 55.9%1,185 W · 933 L | +40.1wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked Fils | 50c | 28.13$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.07 | 1,417 | 45.2%640 W · 777 L | +41.7wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7cbc…2b18backed Fils | 48c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.25per pick | 42cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3145…d692backed Fils | 69c | 21.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.69 | 37 | 67.6%25 W · 12 L | +4.3wins | +0.12per pick | 56cpaid | +20%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xca29…a1d0backed Fils | 53c | 19.97$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.38 | 254 | 52%132 W · 122 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0a6…15efbacked Fils | 74c | 19.95$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.19 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa888…e98cbacked Fils | 69c | 15.42$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.84 | 164 | 59.1%97 W · 67 L | +9.8wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set 1 Winner: Fils vs Musettithis page
- Arthur Fils vs. Lorenzo Musetti: Total Sets O/U 2.5Under 2.5 won
- Barcelona Open: Arthur Fils vs Lorenzo MusettiArthur Fils won
- Fils vs. Musetti: Match O/U 21.5Under won
- Set Handicap: Musetti (-1.5) vs Fils (+1.5)Fils won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.