Tennis · resolved market
Arthur Fils vs. Lorenzo Musetti: Total Sets O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4a714bd7f8ebdbd1a8c5cb0920ad91150051c3fa818e5019443de328db8ed895
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Under 2.5of Over 2.5, Under 2.5
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,628
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,107
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,628 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6394…9749backed Over 2.5 | 49c | 916.28$447 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$446.9 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Under 2.5 | 52c | 796.67$414 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$382.4 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4483…c565backed Over 2.5 | 50c | 792.5$396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$396.25 | 185 | 43.2%80 W · 105 L | -13.4wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6e25…db26backed Under 2.5 | 57c | 478.55$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.78 | 825 | 60.5%499 W · 326 L | -11.2wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over 2.5 | 44c | 440.86$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.63 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc249…8a61backed Under 2.5 | 50c | 390.34$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.17 | 671 | 44.7%300 W · 371 L | +30.7wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75dc…4f82backed Under 2.5 | 50c | 323.73$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.86 | 236 | 53.4%126 W · 110 L | +8.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa373…b6dcbacked Over 2.5 | 48c | 282.57$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.63 | 543 | 48.1%261 W · 282 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06c2…184fbacked Under 2.5 | 46c | 270$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.8 | 243 | 40.3%98 W · 145 L | -11.6wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd205…e7fbbacked Over 2.5 | 54c | 269.98$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.86 | 310 | 39.4%122 W · 188 L | -10.6wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x834e…acb7backed Under 2.5 | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…e0c1backed Under 2.5 | 49c | 197.84$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.9 | 130 | 41.5%54 W · 76 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x796c…49dbbacked Under 2.5 | 57c | 194.46$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.91 | 84 | 48.8%41 W · 43 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0764…41d1backed Under 2.5 | 50c | 193.9$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.95 | 234 | 57.3%134 W · 100 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4be6…b010backed Over 2.5 | 53c | 91.68$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.59 | 1,428 | 48.2%689 W · 739 L | +4.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce6d…4968backed Over 2.5 | 56c | 86.93$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.68 | 58 | 41.4%24 W · 34 L | -4.9wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3a72…0a38backed Over 2.5 | 14c | 80$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 452 | 35.8%162 W · 290 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Under 2.5 | 47c | 59.01$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.3 | 450 | 51.8%233 W · 217 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27b1…3813backed Under 2.5 | 53c | 58.92$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.59 | 1,168 | 49.1%573 W · 595 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under 2.5 | 56c | 36.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.95 | 7,139 | 49.7%3,548 W · 3,591 L | +109.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f6d…bfc5backed Under 2.5 | 60c | 34.62$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.94 | 311 | 53.1%165 W · 146 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2809…0b89backed Over 2.5 | 44c | 33.27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.49 | 60 | 46.7%28 W · 32 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72be…c534backed Over 2.5 | 51c | 29.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 62 | 14.5%9 W · 53 L | -11.2wins | -0.18per pick | 33cpaid | -62.2%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xac50…d728backed Over 2.5 | 56c | 26.08$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 283 | 43.8%124 W · 159 L | -10.6wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…ba2cbacked Under 2.5 | 55c | 24.76$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.04 | 371 | 53.9%200 W · 171 L | +6.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69b9…a5d5backed Under 2.5 | 60c | 19.52$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.81 | 196 | 57.1%112 W · 84 L | +12.6wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x899e…0863backed Under 2.5 | 73c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.05 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Arthur Fils vs. Lorenzo Musetti: Total Sets O/U 2.5this page
- Barcelona Open: Arthur Fils vs Lorenzo MusettiArthur Fils won
- Fils vs. Musetti: Match O/U 21.5Under won
- Set 1 Winner: Fils vs MusettiFils won
- Set Handicap: Musetti (-1.5) vs Fils (+1.5)Fils won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.