Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Spread: Michigan State Spartans (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2dee6108c35d238b7271b0712ede114c495375b906f4c539611b7480bb80935e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Michigan State Spartansof Michigan State Spartans, North Carolina Tar Heels
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,528
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,514
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,528 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 13 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Michigan State Spartans | 47c | 9,105$4,298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,807.73 | 1,074 | 47%505 W · 569 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked North Carolina Tar Heels | 53c | 5,764$3,057 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,056.74 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked North Carolina Tar Heels | 53c | 1,875$989 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$989.25 | 4,848 | 52.2%2,532 W · 2,316 L | +139.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed North Carolina Tar Heels | 50c | 953$479 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$479.14 | 820 | 48.2%395 W · 425 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Michigan State Spartans | 46c | 238$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.52 | 1,124 | 46.4%521 W · 603 L | -25.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed North Carolina Tar Heels | 55c | 221$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.55 | 5,553 | 47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L | +26.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc42c…42a1backed North Carolina Tar Heels | 56c | 178$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.68 | 635 | 51.5%327 W · 308 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Michigan State Spartans | 49c | 171$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.21 | 71 | 19.7%14 W · 57 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed North Carolina Tar Heels | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 352 | 43.2%152 W · 200 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed North Carolina Tar Heels | 55c | 92$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.6 | 1,633 | 47.3%773 W · 860 L | +25.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed North Carolina Tar Heels | 36c | 52.96$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.15 | 47 | 38.3%18 W · 29 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7705…a442backed Michigan State Spartans | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.48 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…2bc3backed North Carolina Tar Heels | 52c | 29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.08 | 214 | 55.6%119 W · 95 L | +10.7wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Michigan State Spartans (-2.5)this page
- Michigan State Spartans vs. North Carolina Tar HeelsMichigan State Spartans won
- Michigan State Spartans vs. North Carolina Tar Heels: O/U 150.5Under won
- Michigan State Spartans vs. North Carolina Tar Heels: O/U 151.5Under won
- Michigan State Spartans vs. North Carolina Tar Heels: O/U 152.5Under won
- Spread: Michigan State Spartans (-1.5)Michigan State Spartans won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.