College Football · resolved market
Spread: Texas (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2e2903d2dea9efdaa0a0215b5e45df330f035f1f75a7e2fe2447f11a8a1b2cb1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Texasof Texas, Oklahoma
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,268
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,762
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,268 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x02fc…2c31backed Oklahoma | 51c | 13,757$7,016 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,016.07 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb7…e33dbacked Texas | 49c | 13,467$6,599 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,868.07 | 377 | 49.6%187 W · 190 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…5b15backed Oklahoma | 49c | 10,000$4,900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,900 | 115 | 53%61 W · 54 L | +5.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x04b9…cdaabacked Texas | 52c | 9,621$5,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,620.51 | 157 | 45.2%71 W · 86 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ca…a175backed Texas | 51c | 6,000$3,060 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,940 | 115 | 41.7%48 W · 67 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Oklahoma | 47c | 3,636$1,709 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,708.71 | 859 | 47.7%410 W · 449 L | +14.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Oklahoma | 48c | 1,244$597 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$597.07 | 227 | 50.7%115 W · 112 L | +9.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e08…1270backed Oklahoma | 51c | 839.1$428 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$427.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x014c…f5b6backed Texas | 51c | 800$408 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$392 | 90 | 48.9%44 W · 46 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Oklahoma | 50c | 798.19$402 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$402.26 | 2,013 | 49.6%999 W · 1,014 L | +24.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69e9…dee1backed Texas | 51c | 687.75$351 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$337 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +4.1wins | +0.15per pick | 33cpaid | +41.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Oklahoma | 49c | 640.68$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$313.93 | 862 | 43.7%377 W · 485 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44a0…c3b9backed Texas | 50c | 600$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$303 | 117 | 35.9%42 W · 75 L | -5.4wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3989…27b1backed Oklahoma | 56c | 600$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336 | 135 | 48.9%66 W · 69 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked Texas | 44c | 503.95$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282.21 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb98b…7e18backed Texas | 46c | 300$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162 | 134 | 32.8%44 W · 90 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…7017backed Oklahoma | 50c | 300$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 142 | 54.9%78 W · 64 L | +12.3wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd2cb…ac5abacked Oklahoma | 55c | 282.83$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.77 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa774…005fbacked Oklahoma | 51c | 241.18$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -6.1wins | -0.20per pick | 55cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3fbc…9cf6backed Texas | 44c | 229.98$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.79 | 91 | 54.9%50 W · 41 L | +6.5wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Texas | 51c | 213.92$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.82 | 176 | 55.1%97 W · 79 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bc5…655ebacked Oklahoma | 49c | 205.92$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Texas | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 568 | 44.5%253 W · 315 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked Oklahoma | 50c | 154.74$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.38 | 756 | 51.9%392 W · 364 L | +20.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7daf…f1b3backed Texas | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.04 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked Texas | 47c | 62.23$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.98 | 134 | 50.7%68 W · 66 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +11%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80ff…0d9ebacked Oklahoma | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf6dc…8c92backed Oklahoma | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 45 | 31.1%14 W · 31 L | -8.1wins | -0.18per pick | 49cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c1…416abacked Texas | 51c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 100 | 59%59 W · 41 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcba6…bb05backed Oklahoma | 56c | 18.07$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 160 | 44.4%71 W · 89 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Texas (-2.5)this page
- O/U 42.5Under won
- Oklahoma vs. TexasTexas won
- Oklahoma vs. Texas: O/U 44.5Under won
- Spread: Oklahoma (-1.5)Texas won
- Spread: Texas (-1.5)Texas won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.