TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

College Football · resolved market

Oklahoma vs. Texas

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Texasof Oklahoma, Texas
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,181,224
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,197,383

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,181,224 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 381 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in College Football
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xed88…f3c4backed Texas56c553,314$308,295 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$245,019.5912549.6%62 W · 63 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+6.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaefe…1e4abacked Texas57c525,564$299,999 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$225,564.992955.2%16 W · 13 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick59cpaid-6.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x83b9…6124backed Oklahoma44c395,419$174,339 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174,339.4534250.3%172 W · 170 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaf38…a59bbacked Oklahoma44c202,859$89,491 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89,490.8275651.9%392 W · 364 L+20.6wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Oklahoma46c168,743$78,453 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78,452.9768440.8%279 W · 405 L-10.7wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-17.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdbad…9c95backed Oklahoma43c153,841$66,629 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66,628.516547.7%31 W · 34 L+2.3wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2d0f…4faabacked Oklahoma45c93,060$41,469 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41,469.3715539.4%61 W · 94 L+3.4wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+9.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xee00…cea1backed Oklahoma44c65,000$28,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28,60017048.2%82 W · 88 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1496…a429backed Texas55c57,250$31,487 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25,762.4721055.2%116 W · 94 L+13.3wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+12.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xa49b…4c40backed Oklahoma45c53,426$24,071 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24,071.057846.2%36 W · 42 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-14.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked Oklahoma42c49,858$20,739 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,739.440541.2%167 W · 238 L+1.8wins0.00per pick41cpaid-24.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5139…a8dbbacked Texas56c47,033$26,551 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,481.6481847.9%392 W · 426 L+5.5wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2129…4222backed Oklahoma41c42,715$17,612 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,612.4385947.7%410 W · 449 L+14.9wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2c33…0563backed Oklahoma45c41,939$18,928 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,928.3410448.1%50 W · 54 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-9.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9158…fa7bbacked Oklahoma43c40,000$17,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,2005745.6%26 W · 31 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd38b…5029backed Texas53c40,000$21,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,799.9732745.6%149 W · 178 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick46cpaid+0.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x04b9…cdaabacked Texas57c37,446$21,344 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,101.6115745.2%71 W · 86 L-3.9wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-2.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3c82…e0cbbacked Oklahoma32c31,007$9,887 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,886.6820039.5%79 W · 121 L-3.6wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-15.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc996…bb65backed Texas65c29,641$19,169 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,471.5427648.9%135 W · 141 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-2.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4488…e319backed Texas50c29,100$14,495 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,604.8439954.1%216 W · 183 L+16.7wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+7.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc3c3…eec8backed Texas51c25,000$12,747 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,253.3527246%125 W · 147 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb45d…a406backed Oklahoma46c23,905$10,931 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,930.57929.1%23 W · 56 L-8.1wins-0.10per pick39cpaid-41.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xb786…b18dbacked Oklahoma42c20,580$8,564 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,563.7530949.5%153 W · 156 L+13.0wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+2.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdd8c…672ebacked Oklahoma44c18,165$7,957 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,956.773135.5%11 W · 20 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+26.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc2a3…c3a6backed Oklahoma43c18,000$7,650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,65011653.4%62 W · 54 L-5.2wins-0.04per pick58cpaid-7.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5b86…0669backed Oklahoma43c16,500$7,125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,1252748.1%13 W · 14 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+4.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1bbc…f458backed Oklahoma47c13,965$6,529 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,528.810750.5%54 W · 53 L-0.4wins0.00per pick51cpaid-7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Oklahoma0c11,470$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.472244%9 W · 215 L-0.5wins0.00per pick4cpaid-74.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7fb7…e33dbacked Oklahoma43c11,002$4,731 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,730.8837749.6%187 W · 190 L+6.8wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7b7e…dfafbacked Oklahoma21c10,544$2,177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,177.31118.2%2 W · 9 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick23cpaid-9.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xea18…3cbebacked Oklahoma46c10,086$4,619 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,618.96944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-23.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Oklahoma43c10,000$4,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,30052641.8%220 W · 306 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Oklahoma44c8,619$3,784 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,783.532,01349.6%999 W · 1,014 L+24.2wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x630c…3801backed Oklahoma17c8,121$1,352 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,351.851650%8 W · 8 L+2.9wins+0.18per pick32cpaid+39.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4e67…2a9cbacked Oklahoma50c8,011$3,968 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,968.2210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x53e5…6177backed Oklahoma44c7,500$3,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,3007944.3%35 W · 44 L-0.2wins0.00per pick45cpaid+3.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcb43…3c74backed Oklahoma35c6,538$2,286 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,286.3238546%177 W · 208 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf38d…fa60backed Texas52c6,460$3,344 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,115.222100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x14ac…cb21backed Texas57c6,000$3,420 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,5805957.6%34 W · 25 L+0.1wins0.00per pick57cpaid+3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Texas52c6,000$3,120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,879.9938142.5%162 W · 219 L-10.2wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-8.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6239…c24fbacked Texas56c5,830$3,236 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,593.749443.7%216 W · 278 L-9.8wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-6.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbd44…00e4backed Texas54c5,342$2,884 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,457.941100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x471b…b18fbacked Texas73c5,072$3,693 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,378.96922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick25cpaid-68.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x41f2…b9d3backed Oklahoma48c5,000$2,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,40010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6fad…30cebacked Oklahoma48c5,000$2,388 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,387.9510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc684…2228backed Oklahoma42c4,896$2,046 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,045.6226750.9%136 W · 131 L+21.7wins+0.08per pick43cpaid+1.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed Oklahoma43c4,839$2,105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,104.5622750.7%115 W · 112 L+9.9wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+9.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x067f…e041backed Oklahoma45c4,500$2,025 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,02519120.9%40 W · 151 L+0.1wins0.00per pick21cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1a38…8fb5backed Texas53c4,343$2,302 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,041.45446.3%25 W · 29 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-8.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa2c0…69d0backed Texas55c4,339$2,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,939.125742.1%24 W · 33 L-2.7wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-21.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x29c0…efaabacked Texas51c4,303$2,189 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,113.9850358.1%292 W · 211 L+5.6wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3a61…b560backed Oklahoma36c4,300$1,547 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,546.976838.2%26 W · 42 L-3.1wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-13.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2131…aaf2backed Texas50c4,210$2,119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,091.192100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe7ca…a175backed Texas55c4,199$2,296 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,903.6611541.7%48 W · 67 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-10.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3dfc…7deebacked Texas52c4,092$2,128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,964.11100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+92.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x01fe…7d93backed Oklahoma49c4,088$2,016 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,016.1210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8ff3…7d00backed Oklahoma25c4,000$996 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$996.13122.6%7 W · 24 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-30.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x69ab…c993backed Oklahoma50c3,962$1,981 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,98120%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4c86…366bbacked Texas50c3,900$1,963 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,9371735.3%6 W · 11 L-1.8wins-0.10per pick46cpaid-25.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x13e8…8509backed Texas51c3,800$1,938 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,8621100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Texas74c3,785$2,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$984.9886243.7%377 W · 485 L+6.6wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-7.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc17f…efa4backed Texas54c3,761$2,031 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,730.091100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdd80…847fbacked Texas53c3,600$1,906 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,694.141100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+88.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1e3a…4033backed Oklahoma41c3,588$1,455 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,454.5419362.2%120 W · 73 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x445e…9be0backed Oklahoma48c3,500$1,665 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,66519849%97 W · 101 L-6.2wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-7.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xecbe…42ffbacked Oklahoma2c3,400$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5124229.3%71 W · 171 L+8.7wins+0.04per pick26cpaid-24.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1d85…228ebacked Oklahoma50c3,360$1,680 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,6803145.2%14 W · 17 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick46cpaid+15.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x540c…a634backed Texas52c3,298$1,700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,597.71947.4%9 W · 10 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a7e…fce4backed Oklahoma46c3,000$1,386 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,38625629.3%75 W · 181 L+5.8wins+0.02per pick27cpaid+10.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x00cc…658bbacked Oklahoma59c2,970$1,748 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,748.1470%0 W · 7 L-2.4wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Oklahoma39c2,958$1,152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,152.4263243.7%276 W · 356 L+34.8wins+0.06per pick38cpaid+138.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Oklahoma31c2,883$895 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$895.4662843.6%274 W · 354 L+7.4wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-14.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Oklahoma44c2,846$1,247 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,246.5249253.5%263 W · 229 L+7.3wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x21d8…ad91backed Oklahoma40c2,777$1,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,1008145.7%37 W · 44 L+2.3wins+0.03per pick43cpaid-5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2fe6…ab9dbacked Texas54c2,690$1,443 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,247.575438.9%21 W · 33 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-17.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbb36…9545backed Oklahoma42c2,500$1,060 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,06016945.6%77 W · 92 L+9.3wins+0.06per pick40cpaid+16.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3a32…6d7ebacked Oklahoma42c2,500$1,060 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0606465.6%42 W · 22 L+14.8wins+0.23per pick42cpaid+58.6%equal weight69+0.17 edge/pick
0x47bc…f080backed Oklahoma50c2,498$1,249 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,249250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5137…1556backed Oklahoma48c2,431$1,164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,164.191,09041.7%455 W · 635 L-5.9wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf020…a576backed Oklahoma25c2,379$583 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$582.871915.8%3 W · 16 L-1.6wins-0.08per pick24cpaid-61.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Texas69c2,351$1,631 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$720.3540244.8%180 W · 222 L+1.6wins0.00per pick44cpaid-5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe85e…2aebbacked Texas49c2,227$1,101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,126.12728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.11per pick40cpaid-33.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa0e6…a35dbacked Oklahoma46c2,130$980 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5d03…369abacked Oklahoma45c2,058$928 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$928.3912750.4%64 W · 63 L+2.4wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5482…b6eebacked Oklahoma1c2,057$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.53814.9%4 W · 77 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick4cpaid-40.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1254…cec1backed Oklahoma49c2,041$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000580%4 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.21per pick59cpaid+33.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd71f…f3f7backed Oklahoma47c2,000$940 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94020%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5bc4…f44fbacked Oklahoma44c2,000$885 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88511149.5%55 W · 56 L+0.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0432…1660backed Oklahoma27c2,000$539 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$539.379635.4%34 W · 62 L-3.4wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-18%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2668…f995backed Oklahoma50c2,000$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2ad1…de17backed Texas54c2,000$1,080 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9202100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+73.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc8a4…9e63backed Oklahoma50c1,948$970 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$969.641250%6 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-19.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5d16…75e7backed Texas52c1,923$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$923.081100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+92.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x68e1…702fbacked Texas52c1,923$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$923.08333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.19per pick52cpaid-35.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2619…9f4ebacked Oklahoma45c1,899$857 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$856.5617954.2%97 W · 82 L+11.0wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+8.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd1cb…85eebacked Texas53c1,887$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$886.791546.7%7 W · 8 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick42cpaid-14%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x32e2…caeabacked Oklahoma47c1,800$846 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84620%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8a1b…96b0backed Texas54c1,800$972 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8282100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+73.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8753…85adbacked Texas55c1,780$979 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$800.9917655.1%97 W · 79 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9def…d1a5backed Oklahoma45c1,770$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$799.7912450.8%63 W · 61 L+3.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.