Tennis · resolved market
Tigre 2: Gonzalo Villanueva vs Guido Justo
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2e35ddca3f68fdcbae67098a4c8b615f02ece9fd657930264a9cad44681ebcdb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Justoof Villanueva, Justo
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,931
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,648
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,931 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xae30…079ebacked Villanueva | 50c | 3,230$1,615 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,615 | 416 | 45.4%189 W · 227 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Justo | 51c | 2,460$1,259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,200.19 | 2,746 | 30.8%846 W · 1,900 L | -67.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Villanueva | 21c | 903.96$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.49 | 2,982 | 39.1%1,167 W · 1,815 L | -109.1wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Villanueva | 23c | 793.49$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186 | 2,865 | 44.3%1,269 W · 1,596 L | +6.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Justo | 68c | 785.53$536 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.29 | 1,973 | 46.3%914 W · 1,059 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd038…8f51backed Villanueva | 21c | 773.33$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.74 | 4,288 | 40.5%1,737 W · 2,551 L | -139.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd3d…e7ebbacked Villanueva | 27c | 735.35$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1,130 | 27.9%315 W · 815 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Villanueva | 20c | 612.98$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.09 | 2,426 | 47.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa9…febebacked Villanueva | 10c | 534.83$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.46 | 1,410 | 38.4%542 W · 868 L | -13.4wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -25%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Justo | 68c | 300$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.24 | 1,809 | 43.8%793 W · 1,016 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde9f…d43cbacked Justo | 75c | 263.96$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.85 | 6,599 | 50.7%3,343 W · 3,256 L | +259.7wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Justo | 71c | 196$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.84 | 4,602 | 48.3%2,223 W · 2,379 L | +34.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaea0…0decbacked Justo | 80c | 180$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.46 | 970 | 46.6%452 W · 518 L | -8.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6be…b977backed Villanueva | 30c | 166.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1,768 | 43.2%764 W · 1,004 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e1…c20abacked Villanueva | 24c | 159$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.21 | 737 | 45.2%333 W · 404 L | -9.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf337…609abacked Villanueva | 21c | 124.55$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.64 | 90 | 16.7%15 W · 75 L | -9.6wins | -0.11per pick | 27cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Justo | 70c | 117.32$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.2 | 363 | 49.9%181 W · 182 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…534cbacked Justo | 68c | 100$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 779 | 67.8%528 W · 251 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe324…9189backed Justo | 71c | 99.2$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.2 | 206 | 64.1%132 W · 74 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef27…bd29backed Villanueva | 53c | 95.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 63 | 54%34 W · 29 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Justo | 72c | 87.55$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.82 | 7,816 | 50.6%3,958 W · 3,858 L | +95.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Villanueva | 18c | 85.63$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.33 | 3,270 | 13.8%450 W · 2,820 L | -549.1wins | -0.17per pick | 31cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x6ba5…e557backed Villanueva | 36c | 83.85$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 83 | 74.7%62 W · 21 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 70cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc5a6…0f2bbacked Villanueva | 20c | 75.95$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.8wins | -0.25per pick | 44cpaid | -60.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbc67…5286backed Justo | 76c | 74$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.76 | 470 | 57.2%269 W · 201 L | +16.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed Villanueva | 16c | 68.2$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 51 | 13.7%7 W · 44 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -36%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb76…7ffebacked Villanueva | 28c | 61.22$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.14 | 968 | 44.4%430 W · 538 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21c2…6749backed Villanueva | 25c | 58$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.72 | 1,008 | 46%464 W · 544 L | -19.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4ac…5e19backed Justo | 71c | 49.41$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.33 | 219 | 57.1%125 W · 94 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Villanueva | 29c | 48$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.92 | 1,028 | 33.6%345 W · 683 L | -3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1813…4dfebacked Justo | 80c | 41.32$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.37 | 290 | 63.8%185 W · 105 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ac5…f963backed Justo | 62c | 34.52$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.14 | 341 | 49.9%170 W · 171 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e6c…1c75backed Justo | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 73 | 74%54 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.