Tennis · resolved market
Adelaide International, Qualification: Jacob Fearnley vs Aleksandar Vukic
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2e4b86ec75e6163c5b55321cb909d7f7edea5732929812d14cc29f55e237336b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Vukicof Fearnley, Vukic
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $40,638
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $44,755
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,638 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Fearnley | 8c | 6,424$541 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$541.29 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d9d…e6c3backed Vukic | 50c | 4,000$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,000 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Fearnley | 0c | 3,632$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.81 | 2,331 | 7.9%183 W · 2,148 L | -56.9wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Fearnley | 49c | 2,442$1,204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,203.8 | 2,746 | 30.8%846 W · 1,900 L | -67.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Fearnley | 15c | 1,178$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.76 | 2,426 | 47.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…f76ebacked Fearnley | 32c | 1,000$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316.38 | 1,446 | 48.8%706 W · 740 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Fearnley | 15c | 819.29$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.78 | 305 | 30.8%94 W · 211 L | -9.5wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Fearnley | 29c | 786.38$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.11 | 2,865 | 44.3%1,269 W · 1,596 L | +6.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Fearnley | 28c | 483.73$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.96 | 2,982 | 39.1%1,167 W · 1,815 L | -109.1wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x15fe…c871backed Fearnley | 56c | 388.74$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.28 | 161 | 33.5%54 W · 107 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed Vukic | 43c | 333.35$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.01 | 347 | 45.2%157 W · 190 L | +16.5wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x83c8…26f0backed Fearnley | 13c | 300$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 138 | 16.7%23 W · 115 L | +7.6wins | +0.06per pick | 11cpaid | +46%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked Fearnley | 28c | 284.28$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.94 | 276 | 27.2%75 W · 201 L | -25.2wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Fearnley | 27c | 222.29$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.79 | 2,489 | 45.2%1,126 W · 1,363 L | -27.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Fearnley | 13c | 189.1$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.29 | 156 | 5.8%9 W · 147 L | -32.4wins | -0.21per pick | 27cpaid | -64.6%equal weight | 30-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x5404…5e58backed Fearnley | 32c | 180$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.07 | 684 | 30%205 W · 479 L | +7.2wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0097…f101backed Fearnley | 58c | 172.87$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 218 | 43.1%94 W · 124 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Fearnley | 39c | 147$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.87 | 1,852 | 44.5%825 W · 1,027 L | -20.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Fearnley | 56c | 139.94$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.37 | 2,375 | 51.1%1,213 W · 1,162 L | +8.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3a…d5b0backed Fearnley | 58c | 100.36$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85c2…9730backed Vukic | 44c | 86.36$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.36 | 518 | 49.4%256 W · 262 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Vukic | 67c | 81.91$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.28 | 1,655 | 50.1%829 W · 826 L | +30.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Fearnley | 19c | 62.44$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.63 | 1,379 | 16.4%226 W · 1,153 L | -108.5wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x36bf…2864backed Vukic | 47c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 444 | 23.9%106 W · 338 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Fearnley | 26c | 49.98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.91 | 884 | 55%486 W · 398 L | +37.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x25bf…7a56backed Vukic | 63c | 47.77$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.77 | 2,335 | 46.6%1,088 W · 1,247 L | +55.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66f8…8b5bbacked Vukic | 58c | 42$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.83 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +3.3wins | +0.28per pick | 56cpaid | +43.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4dc8…6abbbacked Vukic | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.20per pick | 70cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x72ea…d4f2backed Fearnley | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 54 | 64.8%35 W · 19 L | +5.2wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +19%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Vukic | 40c | 31$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 319 | 48.9%156 W · 163 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70ac…0c7dbacked Vukic | 54c | 30.51$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.14 | 2,537 | 53.6%1,361 W · 1,176 L | +61.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8b…d3d6backed Vukic | 51c | 20.44$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.94 | 69 | 18.8%13 W · 56 L | -11.0wins | -0.16per pick | 35cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Adelaide International, Qualification: Jacob Fearnley vs Aleksandar Vukicthis page
- Fearnley vs. Vukic: Match O/U 21.5Over won
- Fearnley vs. Vukic: Total Sets O/U 2.5Over 2.5 won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.