Valorant · resolved market
Valorant: Natus Vincere vs Karmine Corp - Map 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2e6a666ed732278201804ae70f4ebede3c98e6b11ed6443ea144d2e1c010c121
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Natus Vincereof Natus Vincere, Karmine Corp
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Valorantevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,237
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,123
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,237 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Valorant is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Valorant | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd604…ee57backed Karmine Corp | 32c | 3,659$1,188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,188.23 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.29per pick | 43cpaid | +63.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc65c…ea39backed Natus Vincere | 67c | 3,001$2,002 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$999.23 | 343 | 56.9%195 W · 148 L | +23.0wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +16%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2586…f071backed Natus Vincere | 80c | 2,255$1,796 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$458.7 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 56cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a78…add7backed Karmine Corp | 26c | 1,750$455 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$454.78 | 395 | 45.8%181 W · 214 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd8c4…bb5dbacked Natus Vincere | 50c | 700$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +18%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…90e0backed Natus Vincere | 71c | 678.39$482 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.74 | 796 | 50%398 W · 398 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb877…a13fbacked Karmine Corp | 17c | 569.4$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.8 | 247 | 32%79 W · 168 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5b3…7c36backed Karmine Corp | 7c | 400$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaaa7…d27abacked Karmine Corp | 14c | 352.54$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.46 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8df0…96a6backed Natus Vincere | 80c | 270.79$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.26 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.4wins | +0.35per pick | 51cpaid | +85.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1c…2a3ebacked Karmine Corp | 45c | 222.22$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 80 | 38.8%31 W · 49 L | -5.2wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0b99…8bddbacked Karmine Corp | 16c | 201.25$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.23 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.25per pick | 35cpaid | +88.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf0a…320abacked Karmine Corp | 21c | 195$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.78 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Karmine Corp | 22c | 162.53$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.16 | 274 | 11.3%31 W · 243 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaadb…85f9backed Karmine Corp | 22c | 90.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 428 | 40%171 W · 257 L | -22.4wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x641f…942bbacked Natus Vincere | 62c | 88.5$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.63 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ddd…5366backed Natus Vincere | 79c | 77.32$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.03 | 49 | 49%24 W · 25 L | -5.1wins | -0.10per pick | 59cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3adc…972dbacked Natus Vincere | 77c | 64.94$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.94 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6cc…354fbacked Natus Vincere | 76c | 47.31$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.16 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Karmine Corp | 23c | 46.68$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.74 | 52 | 42.3%22 W · 30 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1dbf…6631backed Natus Vincere | 80c | 43.41$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.88 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30f4…8c1ebacked Natus Vincere | 53c | 43.09$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.25 | 53 | 47.2%25 W · 28 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf680…f435backed Natus Vincere | 66c | 37.61$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +51.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f4b…f948backed Karmine Corp | 39c | 28.52$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a89…196fbacked Natus Vincere | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d03…b8a6backed Karmine Corp | 54c | 18.81$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.16 | 152 | 55.9%85 W · 67 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Valorant and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Valorant: Natus Vincere vs Karmine Corp - Map 1 Winnerthis page
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
- Karmine Corp to win 0 maps?Yes won
- Karmine Corp to win 1 maps?No won
- Karmine Corp to win 1 maps?No won
- Karmine Corp to win 2 maps?No won
- Karmine Corp to win 2 maps?No won
- Map Handicap: KC (-1.5)Natus Vincere won
- Natus Vincere to win 0 maps?No won
- Natus Vincere to win 1 maps?No won
- Natus Vincere to win 1 maps?No won
- Natus Vincere to win 2 maps?Yes won
- Natus Vincere to win 2 maps?Yes won
- Valorant: Natus Vincere vs Karmine Corp (BO3)Natus Vincere won
- Valorant: Natus Vincere vs Karmine Corp - Map 2 WinnerNatus Vincere won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.