Dota2 · resolved market
Game Handicap: FLC (-1.5) vs Team Liquid (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2e6e8f56801aba426c3e948766e0c50b90e380e13f1f6e39f99ffe73d3e54b02
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Team Falconsof Team Falcons, Team Liquid
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,694
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,880
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,694 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdc40…89cfbacked Team Falcons | 25c | 494.33$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$370.75 | 360 | 41.4%149 W · 211 L | -22.2wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Team Liquid | 66c | 450.54$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.84 | 1,164 | 47.2%549 W · 615 L | -29.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c1e…9514backed Team Liquid | 75c | 400$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 864 | 51.7%447 W · 417 L | +20.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d8a…5201backed Team Falcons | 29c | 392.09$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.23 | 227 | 27.3%62 W · 165 L | -9.7wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2662…3f84backed Team Liquid | 71c | 330.6$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.73 | 145 | 62.1%90 W · 55 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ab…16d0backed Team Falcons | 50c | 283.9$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.4 | 430 | 67%288 W · 142 L | +31.9wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x55ab…40e8backed Team Falcons | 37c | 240.54$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.54 | 114 | 50.9%58 W · 56 L | +9.4wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Team Falcons | 31c | 200$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138 | 1,154 | 47.7%550 W · 604 L | -12.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9235…3fbdbacked Team Liquid | 72c | 138.9$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.01 | 151 | 67.5%102 W · 49 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54e0…b02cbacked Team Liquid | 12c | 128.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 405 | 34.6%140 W · 265 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84d9…76dbbacked Team Falcons | 33c | 100$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.5 | 267 | 41.9%112 W · 155 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d72…a791backed Team Liquid | 73c | 85.24$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.23 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24f5…98d2backed Team Falcons | 52c | 79.91$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.36 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5c7…5864backed Team Falcons | 28c | 71.43$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.43 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f87…f04ebacked Team Falcons | 50c | 71.21$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.35 | 112 | 50.9%57 W · 55 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e31…0e6ebacked Team Liquid | 75c | 66.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 150 | 69.3%104 W · 46 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 73cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c2…a16ebacked Team Liquid | 76c | 65.45$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 381 | 67.2%256 W · 125 L | +13.5wins | +0.04per pick | 64cpaid | +3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09ce…af35backed Team Liquid | 58c | 60$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.8 | 70 | 51.4%36 W · 34 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18c6…8e8fbacked Team Liquid | 48c | 58.19$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.93 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab6…078ebacked Team Liquid | 67c | 50$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.5 | 119 | 55.5%66 W · 53 L | +10.3wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb03b…4197backed Team Liquid | 68c | 45$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfce8…2686backed Team Liquid | 75c | 21.33$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 145 | 66.2%96 W · 49 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ffd…d27cbacked Team Liquid | 72c | 17.86$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.86 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 53cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Game Handicap: FLC (-1.5) vs Team Liquid (+1.5)this page
- Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Liquid (BO3) - BLAST Slam PlayoffsTeam Falcons won
- Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Liquid - Game 1 WinnerTeam Falcons won
- Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Liquid - Game 2 WinnerTeam Falcons won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.