Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Team Jenz vs KW - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2e7995954b39cf72f72ef1a510cc59c04e7922490a1cd72824e7d8a18a9374d1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- KWof Team Jenz, KW
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,435
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,535
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,435 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x08ee…ffe2backed KW | 66c | 4,658$3,084 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,573.78 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ef…ca6bbacked Team Jenz | 69c | 2,315$1,595 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,594.51 | 1,066 | 57%608 W · 458 L | +52.7wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd3bc…5bd2backed Team Jenz | 35c | 1,420$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 139 | 43.9%61 W · 78 L | -11.8wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x51be…12c2backed Team Jenz | 31c | 1,082$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333.15 | 192 | 51%98 W · 94 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…77dcbacked Team Jenz | 22c | 861.23$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.41 | 998 | 44.4%443 W · 555 L | +21.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60ec…f7b0backed KW | 8c | 826.08$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$763.58 | 503 | 53.9%271 W · 232 L | +26.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0c67…d062backed KW | 19c | 537.34$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$437.34 | 1,137 | 42.3%481 W · 656 L | -27.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…165bbacked KW | 19c | 466.41$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$376.38 | 1,275 | 33.5%427 W · 848 L | -15.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe434…f520backed Team Jenz | 65c | 464.7$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 53 | 52.8%28 W · 25 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Team Jenz | 28c | 439.81$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.21 | 107 | 35.5%38 W · 69 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9aff…b136backed Team Jenz | 20c | 400$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 324 | 45.1%146 W · 178 L | +14.7wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc15f…223dbacked KW | 36c | 340.4$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.46 | 117 | 47.9%56 W · 61 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e3b…be27backed Team Jenz | 34c | 330.96$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111 | 210 | 47.6%100 W · 110 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc6d…31cebacked Team Jenz | 24c | 296.13$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.99 | 90 | 31.1%28 W · 62 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -28%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8efb…c0e6backed KW | 74c | 275.31$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.81 | 222 | 59%131 W · 91 L | -11.3wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec96…f5d7backed KW | 15c | 266.67$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.67 | 372 | 53%197 W · 175 L | +14.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa750…0d0fbacked KW | 17c | 266$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.78 | 377 | 54.9%207 W · 170 L | +20.9wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc925…6d24backed Team Jenz | 22c | 200.48$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.01 | 416 | 32.7%136 W · 280 L | -37.8wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x72c8…a74cbacked Team Jenz | 70c | 200$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 249 | 42.6%106 W · 143 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked KW | 12c | 171.15$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.34 | 1,702 | 41.2%701 W · 1,001 L | -44.0wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Team Jenz | 75c | 149.29$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.97 | 325 | 48.9%159 W · 166 L | -7.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08fa…f1e0backed KW | 43c | 141.33$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.55 | 813 | 45.1%367 W · 446 L | -26.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -20%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…8c41backed KW | 9c | 140$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.4 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +235.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7049…85a5backed Team Jenz | 41c | 135.19$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.43 | 120 | 48.3%58 W · 62 L | +9.3wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked KW | 17c | 125.89$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.18 | 1,458 | 48.5%707 W · 751 L | +27.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb491…4400backed Team Jenz | 23c | 123.95$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.24 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2802…347dbacked Team Jenz | 17c | 109.54$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.62 | 114 | 44.7%51 W · 63 L | +6.2wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc59…1b00backed KW | 14c | 107.14$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.14 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcb8…6b51backed KW | 44c | 104.19$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.71 | 420 | 53.6%225 W · 195 L | +16.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x736d…c635backed Team Jenz | 54c | 100.09$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.73 | 971 | 42.7%415 W · 556 L | -20.4wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f2…8c8dbacked KW | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 421 | 46.6%196 W · 225 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1785…a867backed Team Jenz | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23b5…97e1backed Team Jenz | 73c | 100$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73 | 130 | 44.6%58 W · 72 L | +6.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…8e7ebacked KW | 56c | 89.27$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.28 | 338 | 54.1%183 W · 155 L | +11.7wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x615d…bd5bbacked Team Jenz | 80c | 87.3$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.84 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabd9…dc3abacked KW | 19c | 79.44$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.71 | 187 | 33.2%62 W · 125 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d2d…2be7backed Team Jenz | 35c | 77.68$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.57 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -4.9wins | -0.23per pick | 42cpaid | -67%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x997c…51f3backed Team Jenz | 69c | 75$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.68 | 82 | 50%41 W · 41 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ada…dcb4backed Team Jenz | 42c | 73.31$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.79 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -17%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb64c…393dbacked Team Jenz | 49c | 67.78$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 293 | 50.2%147 W · 146 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02f0…9bb3backed Team Jenz | 73c | 60.41$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.1 | 98 | 48%47 W · 51 L | +7.8wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe76a…47c0backed Team Jenz | 66c | 58.89$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.71 | 69 | 53.6%37 W · 32 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee59…e42abacked KW | 51c | 58.82$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.82 | 288 | 46.9%135 W · 153 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed19…b6ffbacked Team Jenz | 79c | 57.53$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.24 | 29 | 75.9%22 W · 7 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 68cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef0d…ef1cbacked KW | 46c | 54.34$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.34 | 227 | 40.5%92 W · 135 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd60d…80e9backed KW | 29c | 49.96$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.56 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.71per pick | 29cpaid | +244.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5867…2e20backed Team Jenz | 58c | 42.94$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.91 | 253 | 39.1%99 W · 154 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Team Jenz | 30c | 38.36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.51 | 785 | 16.6%130 W · 655 L | -135.4wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x249a…f923backed Team Jenz | 57c | 37.06$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -2.7wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x93b6…5d73backed Team Jenz | 74c | 34.41$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.57 | 133 | 36.8%49 W · 84 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc2c6…61fbbacked Team Jenz | 78c | 33.06$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.7 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -2.9wins | -0.12per pick | 60cpaid | -28%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Team Jenz | 43c | 27.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.93 | 328 | 6.4%21 W · 307 L | -102.4wins | -0.31per pick | 38cpaid | -72.6%equal weight | 18-0.29 edge/pick |
| 0x7560…1ee1backed KW | 41c | 26.82$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.82 | 211 | 33.6%71 W · 140 L | -5.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde55…1d2abacked Team Jenz | 75c | 25.97$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.48 | 71 | 64.8%46 W · 25 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Team Jenz vs KW - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Team Jenz vs KW (BO3) - EPL Masters Play-In Group ATeam Jenz won
- Dota 2: Team Jenz vs KW - Game 2 WinnerTeam Jenz won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.