Premier League · resolved market
Spread: Southampton FC (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2ebafcef9a1b09a98eb6edd7c97e3de2b9bff665409af0e8a83197d60f409189
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Southampton FCof Southampton FC, Oxford United FC
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,207
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,290
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,207 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 12 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Oxford United FC | 22c | 1,248$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.88 | 114 | 30.7%35 W · 79 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Southampton FC | 76c | 988.77$748 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.47 | 6,117 | 45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L | -28.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Oxford United FC | 46c | 216.61$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.67 | 1,934 | 42.4%820 W · 1,114 L | -43.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbe2…5981backed Southampton FC | 77c | 190$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.7 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Southampton FC | 51c | 177$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.12 | 827 | 63%521 W · 306 L | +113.2wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +41.9%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed Oxford United FC | 67c | 90$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.3 | 796 | 39.6%315 W · 481 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d2…d67bbacked Southampton FC | 57c | 59.14$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.43 | 129 | 54.3%70 W · 59 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Southampton FC | 77c | 58$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.63 | 162 | 51.2%83 W · 79 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Southampton FC | 31c | 48.12$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.2 | 2,550 | 47.8%1,218 W · 1,332 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Southampton FC | 57c | 43.86$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.86 | 194 | 41.8%81 W · 113 L | -6.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbefe…2d45backed Southampton FC | 57c | 21.89$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 33 | 63.6%21 W · 12 L | +2.4wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f0c…a98fbacked Oxford United FC | 68c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.24per pick | 53cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Southampton FC (-1.5)this page
- Southampton FC vs. Oxford United FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Southampton FC vs. Oxford United FC: O/U 2.5Under won
- Southampton FC vs. Oxford United FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Southampton FC vs. Oxford United FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Southampton FC (-2.5)Oxford United FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.