Premier League · resolved market
Southampton FC vs. Oxford United FC: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3e9521600aea86d13620af44d367aaabe14a7d32535599c21f356539679d2fcf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,188
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,188 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over | 50c | 5,000$2,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,500 | 506 | 44.3%224 W · 282 L | -14.0wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 50c | 4,556$2,288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,267.84 | 6,117 | 45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L | -28.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8230…5121backed Over | 5c | 1,386$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.23 | 57 | 29.8%17 W · 40 L | +7.6wins | +0.13per pick | 16cpaid | +160.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 5c | 580.07$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.64 | 194 | 41.8%81 W · 113 L | -6.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7e7…fef1backed Over | 6c | 247.19$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -2.2wins | -0.18per pick | 27cpaid | -83.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb8…a6fabacked Over | 52c | 231.44$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 157 | 72%113 W · 44 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 61c | 201.9$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.2 | 1,934 | 42.4%820 W · 1,114 L | -43.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a0…d84fbacked Over | 6c | 198.17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.69 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -2.2wins | -0.20per pick | 29cpaid | -81.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 48c | 179.55$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.27 | 2,550 | 47.8%1,218 W · 1,332 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed Over | 35c | 77.19$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.74 | 223 | 35.4%79 W · 144 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9592…67bebacked Over | 52c | 48.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb409…10b2backed Over | 62c | 47.02$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.15 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Under | 51c | 34.28$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.9 | 497 | 53.7%267 W · 230 L | +27.6wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed Under | 49c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 796 | 39.6%315 W · 481 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Under | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 162 | 51.2%83 W · 79 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0576…6232backed Over | 53c | 22.15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.74 | 159 | 49.1%78 W · 81 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…eeb1backed Over | 50c | 21.46$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.73 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -2.3wins | -0.21per pick | 58cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Southampton FC vs. Oxford United FC: O/U 2.5this page
- Southampton FC vs. Oxford United FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Southampton FC vs. Oxford United FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Southampton FC vs. Oxford United FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Southampton FC (-1.5)Southampton FC won
- Spread: Southampton FC (-2.5)Oxford United FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.