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Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on August 26?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$8,761
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$8,695

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,761 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet's whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes10c628.66$63 inLost-$62.7710,95237.4%4,094 W · 6,858 L+432.6wins+0.04per pick33cpaid+16%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2c57…372dbacked Yes14c497.33$71 inLost-$71.071,61523.9%386 W · 1,229 L+13.7wins+0.01per pick23cpaid-11.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9c95…52dbbacked Yes14c284.43$40 inLost-$39.9918947.6%90 W · 99 L+11.6wins+0.06per pick42cpaid+20.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8d88…1e28backed Yes14c260.98$36 inLost-$36.0181124.8%201 W · 610 L-17.3wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-39.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes7c216.49$16 inLost-$15.915,00353.5%2,678 W · 2,325 L+31.9wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x95d3…6effbacked Yes16c155$25 inLost-$24.853548.2%258 W · 277 L+21.6wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+3.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x28c1…b087backed Yes15c150$23 inLost-$22.518722.5%42 W · 145 L-4.5wins-0.02per pick25cpaid-14%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa0a6…0bb7backed Yes15c150$23 inLost-$22.58822.7%20 W · 68 L-3.7wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-22%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc2cc…95bebacked Yes15c150$23 inLost-$22.59920.2%20 W · 79 L-6.2wins-0.06per pick26cpaid-28.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xba9d…46efbacked No80c125$100 inWon+$257330.1%22 W · 51 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-16.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaf17…5c20backed Yes10c119.95$12 inLost-$11.991,86625.4%474 W · 1,392 L+134.7wins+0.07per pick18cpaid+53.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x41e6…66b7backed Yes15c118.5$18 inLost-$17.7757158.1%332 W · 239 L-28.3wins-0.05per pick63cpaid-10.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2838…6bc7backed Yes18c117.98$21 inLost-$21.241631.3%5 W · 11 L+1.6wins+0.10per pick22cpaid+41.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes11c117.08$13 inLost-$13.317,59237.5%2,849 W · 4,743 L+96.8wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x744f…caffbacked Yes15c108.17$16 inLost-$16.238725.3%22 W · 65 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-12.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked Yes13c87.42$11 inLost-$11.263,72533.8%1,258 W · 2,467 L-194.2wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-28.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb347…a115backed No76c86.45$66 inWon+$20.7511142.3%47 W · 64 L+6.1wins+0.05per pick37cpaid+5.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5927…ba9abacked Yes13c80$10 inLost-$10.431657.6%182 W · 134 L+0.9wins0.00per pick57cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa387…3d3cbacked Yes17c63.77$11 inLost-$10.842842.9%12 W · 16 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-19.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5c9e…3a21backed No80c30.69$25 inWon+$6.141,18454.9%650 W · 534 L+49.6wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+7.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x69a7…7fd5backed No78c20$16 inWon+$4.49273.9%68 W · 24 L-0.2wins0.00per pick74cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf051…1588backed No78c18.99$15 inWon+$4.184100%4 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8d60…a7a5backed No77c13.56$10 inWon+$3.1858850.9%299 W · 289 L+10.8wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
  • The position was at least $10.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.