Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on August 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xabb9fec56de3488996a297a512a60bd8817fdc18c5a5346a4c5a2bca84002898
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,684
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,730
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,684 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked No | 71c | 591.88$421 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.06 | 892 | 59.8%533 W · 359 L | +18.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba9d…46efbacked Yes | 27c | 416.87$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114 | 73 | 30.1%22 W · 51 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Yes | 29c | 202.12$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.63 | 811 | 24.8%201 W · 610 L | -17.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 72c | 148.43$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.02 | 2,215 | 74%1,638 W · 577 L | +18.3wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb530…3c03backed Yes | 20c | 130.5$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 79 | 13.9%11 W · 68 L | -7.4wins | -0.09per pick | 23cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 79c | 130.46$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.39 | 12,545 | 46.9%5,879 W · 6,666 L | -39.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 1,335 | 50.9%680 W · 655 L | -35.8wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed Yes | 28c | 86$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.43 | 1,697 | 52.5%891 W · 806 L | -42.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed Yes | 29c | 85$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.65 | 1,274 | 52.5%669 W · 605 L | -17.0wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 22c | 82.98$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 5,625 | 47.8%2,687 W · 2,938 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e42…4938backed Yes | 27c | 72$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.14 | 426 | 30.3%129 W · 297 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa33d…3ef2backed No | 76c | 71.95$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.95 | 533 | 73.7%393 W · 140 L | +36.8wins | +0.07per pick | 67cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec3…a081backed Yes | 27c | 69.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.55 | 183 | 24%44 W · 139 L | +6.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a5f…1a13backed Yes | 29c | 52.29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 78 | 41%32 W · 46 L | -7.2wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…78d8backed No | 80c | 50.05$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.05 | 256 | 42.2%108 W · 148 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95d3…6effbacked No | 68c | 49.51$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.84 | 535 | 48.2%258 W · 277 L | +21.6wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8c…e802backed Yes | 28c | 42.73$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 193 | 36.3%70 W · 123 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 71c | 42.41$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.41 | 3,649 | 53.2%1,943 W · 1,706 L | +83.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x118b…38c8backed Yes | 26c | 42.13$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 102 | 42.2%43 W · 59 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba7…3d88backed No | 77c | 36$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.28 | 525 | 67%352 W · 173 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 74c | 30.7$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.87 | 1,901 | 55.9%1,062 W · 839 L | -33.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 2,434 | 79.4%1,933 W · 501 L | +99.7wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed No | 76c | 26.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 571 | 58.1%332 W · 239 L | -28.3wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8bfc…8d4fbacked No | 75c | 24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 112 | 72.3%81 W · 31 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 73cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 74c | 23.54$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.23 | 3,810 | 65.8%2,508 W · 1,302 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfca6…6595backed No | 71c | 19.58$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.68 | 120 | 64.2%77 W · 43 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeef1…21b8backed No | 73c | 16.33$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.33 | 542 | 38.9%211 W · 331 L | +12.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2d…da35backed No | 73c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 346 | 67.6%234 W · 112 L | +16.1wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf13…b91abacked No | 71c | 15.58$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.58 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +24.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa600…19c4backed No | 69c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.65 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.14per pick | 57cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on August 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 23°C on August 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on August 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on August 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on August 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on August 26?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on August 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C or higher on August 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.