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Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on August 26?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$5,558
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$6,118

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,558 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet's whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2c57…372dbacked Yes26c510$134 inLost-$134.151,61523.9%386 W · 1,229 L+13.7wins+0.01per pick23cpaid-11.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xba9d…46efbacked Yes28c264.98$75 inLost-$75.57330.1%22 W · 51 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-16.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1ba7…3d88backed No69c207$142 inWon+$64.7952567%352 W · 173 L+1.9wins0.00per pick67cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8d88…1e28backed Yes26c166.59$44 inLost-$44.0881124.8%201 W · 610 L-17.3wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-39.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xffd0…cd07backed No75c161.8$121 inWon+$40.452,43958%1,414 W · 1,025 L-13.4wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe630…ef20backed No71c154.29$110 inWon+$44.7635283.8%295 W · 57 L+39.0wins+0.11per pick73cpaid+15.2%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x95d3…6effbacked Yes29c142.41$41 inLost-$41.1753548.2%258 W · 277 L+21.6wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+3.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xaddf…b8febacked No67c134.33$90 inWon+$44.3330967%207 W · 102 L+9.1wins+0.03per pick64cpaid+0.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No78c132.14$104 inWon+$28.5112,54546.9%5,879 W · 6,666 L-39.4wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes12c129.18$16 inLost-$15.595,00353.5%2,678 W · 2,325 L+31.9wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x38a1…3154backed No75c110.93$83 inWon+$27.612,21574%1,638 W · 577 L+18.3wins+0.01per pick73cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1570…de29backed No71c109.86$78 inWon+$31.8647758.7%280 W · 197 L+13.7wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+11.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes26c100$26 inLost-$25.8567838.6%262 W · 416 L+12.7wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9c95…52dbbacked No69c83$57 inWon+$25.7318947.6%90 W · 99 L+11.6wins+0.06per pick42cpaid+20.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2838…6bc7backed Yes26c62.01$16 inLost-$16.121631.3%5 W · 11 L+1.6wins+0.10per pick22cpaid+41.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2a5f…1a13backed Yes33c60.76$20 inLost-$207841%32 W · 46 L-7.2wins-0.09per pick50cpaid-24.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x655c…4420backed No75c60.45$45 inWon+$15.499757.2%570 W · 427 L+6.0wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes28c53.99$15 inLost-$15.129,96245.9%4,572 W · 5,390 L-309.4wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8bfc…8d4fbacked No77c50.14$39 inWon+$11.5811272.3%81 W · 31 L-0.2wins0.00per pick73cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbbb7…a11abacked No71c50$35 inWon+$14.61,48857.3%853 W · 635 L+46.0wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xeec7…2fa1backed No73c45.15$33 inWon+$12.196864.7%44 W · 24 L+2.6wins+0.04per pick61cpaid+6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaba8…aeadbacked No73c41.45$30 inWon+$11.222190.5%19 W · 2 L+3.4wins+0.16per pick74cpaid+20.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4708…9580backed Yes31c41$13 inLost-$12.7117538.9%68 W · 107 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-19.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbf13…b91abacked No71c34.29$24 inWon+$10.1155942.6%238 W · 321 L+24.4wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+14.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa30e…cf53backed No69c28.84$20 inWon+$8.84922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.3wins-0.14per pick36cpaid-54.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe40a…e4a2backed No73c25.7$19 inWon+$7.061,90155.9%1,062 W · 839 L-33.7wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-11.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x61dd…cbd8backed No72c22.86$16 inWon+$6.396261.3%38 W · 24 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick59cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a0c…a853backed No68c22.05$15 inWon+$7.062,46735.7%880 W · 1,587 L+24.6wins+0.01per pick35cpaid+6.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd9fe…db0dbacked No78c20.86$16 inWon+$4.6316958.6%99 W · 70 L-6.5wins-0.04per pick62cpaid-9.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x69a7…7fd5backed No79c20$16 inWon+$4.29273.9%68 W · 24 L-0.2wins0.00per pick74cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x813f…26ecbacked No67c20$13 inWon+$6.694162.3%586 W · 355 L-24.3wins-0.03per pick65cpaid-4.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6046…3f9dbacked No74c20$15 inWon+$5.246736.8%172 W · 295 L+1.5wins0.00per pick37cpaid-2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0022…c966backed No71c20$14 inWon+$5.85269.2%36 W · 16 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick67cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6288…fd46backed No69c19.91$14 inWon+$6.162466.7%16 W · 8 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No67c18.79$13 inWon+$6.23,81065.8%2,508 W · 1,302 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b55…0c2abacked No68c17.91$12 inWon+$5.734247.6%20 W · 22 L-5.4wins-0.13per pick60cpaid-19.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xc602…7fc1backed No80c15$12 inWon+$31,12855.4%625 W · 503 L-30.8wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-7.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xec6f…b34fbacked No72c14$10 inWon+$3.9914262.7%89 W · 53 L+4.9wins+0.03per pick59cpaid+7.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
  • The position was at least $10.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.