Tennis · resolved market
ATP Kitzbuhel – Rinderknech vs. Hanfmann
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2ece5db745de8ba422b54f06ca4105ab90c3077ca32e10f4b6ad16221a11c807
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Rinderknechof Rinderknech, Hanfmann
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,679
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,909
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,679 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf520…0637backed Hanfmann | 25c | 5,582$1,416 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,416.28 | 280 | 43.2%121 W · 159 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf557…18debacked Rinderknech | 66c | 3,776$2,474 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,302.47 | 63 | 76.2%48 W · 15 L | +11.0wins | +0.17per pick | 59cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x2360…1c1cbacked Hanfmann | 24c | 1,268$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 88 | 31.8%28 W · 60 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe416…d01bbacked Hanfmann | 57c | 1,000$570 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$570 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -18%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b31…2673backed Rinderknech | 43c | 1,000$430 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$570 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 29cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed Hanfmann | 34c | 885.42$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.82 | 1,090 | 35.9%391 W · 699 L | +16.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc559…ac69backed Rinderknech | 51c | 879.64$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$429.64 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…58e2backed Rinderknech | 58c | 500$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212 | 819 | 38.9%319 W · 500 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f39…27a5backed Hanfmann | 23c | 426.9$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.3 | 65 | 49.2%32 W · 33 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ca8…3e59backed Hanfmann | 28c | 240.23$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 51 | 58.8%30 W · 21 L | +3.4wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x12f1…3cd3backed Hanfmann | 35c | 209.61$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.96 | 65 | 40%26 W · 39 L | -5.2wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Rinderknech | 45c | 200$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 629 | 52.1%328 W · 301 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Rinderknech | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.08 | 731 | 47.9%350 W · 381 L | -16.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b5a…7618backed Rinderknech | 44c | 160$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89 | 253 | 30%76 W · 177 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb0d…786fbacked Rinderknech | 57c | 90$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.98 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa9…2491backed Hanfmann | 55c | 60$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 321 | 41.1%132 W · 189 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x25bf…7a56backed Rinderknech | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 2,335 | 46.6%1,088 W · 1,247 L | +55.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2466…e4afbacked Rinderknech | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4487…08c6backed Hanfmann | 55c | 36.95$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.32 | 127 | 37.8%48 W · 79 L | -6.2wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x59a5…3d26backed Rinderknech | 53c | 31.17$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.65 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Rinderknech | 42c | 25.59$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.84 | 639 | 42.4%271 W · 368 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88c4…fbf0backed Hanfmann | 53c | 23.3$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.37 | 204 | 31.4%64 W · 140 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.