Bundesliga · resolved market
Eintracht Braunschweig vs. SV Darmstadt 98: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2ef8dde0832a908b51d76dcdda48ac571532a6e3f6bd98dd59098df15ade86bb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,534
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,711
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,534 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Under | 50c | 5,120$2,558 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,558.36 | 332 | 44.6%148 W · 184 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf42d…b35cbacked Over | 43c | 4,194$1,802 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,391.87 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -41%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 50c | 2,726$1,373 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,353.63 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 46c | 2,359$1,084 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,083.84 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 57c | 1,743$989 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$988.99 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1aa2…30ccbacked Under | 52c | 1,537$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over | 49c | 1,461$710 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$751.3 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x219e…14d9backed Over | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 134 | 61.9%83 W · 51 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a7…63e7backed Over | 53c | 800$424 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$376 | 227 | 47.1%107 W · 120 L | +11.6wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9ae2…20a3backed Under | 56c | 535.71$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 51c | 386.74$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.24 | 536 | 45.9%246 W · 290 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 48c | 292.32$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.98 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e52…00f5backed Over | 51c | 288.77$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.77 | 68 | 44.1%30 W · 38 L | +4.9wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +46%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0e6…84a8backed Over | 42c | 200$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116 | 60 | 53.3%32 W · 28 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f51…41edbacked Over | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.08 | 66 | 59.1%39 W · 27 L | +3.7wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x70b2…fb61backed Under | 53c | 189.02$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +28%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa20f…fcaabacked Over | 78c | 150$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 8 | 100%8 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +27%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2969…6d76backed Under | 53c | 113.21$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.19per pick | 29cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3f3…9b44backed Over | 37c | 100$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Over | 41c | 97.56$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.56 | 253 | 52.2%132 W · 121 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04c0…0927backed Over | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.59 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfe6…49f8backed Over | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.91 | 221 | 57%126 W · 95 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc91…0fdbbacked Over | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.91 | 209 | 57.4%120 W · 89 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61ce…21ebbacked Over | 80c | 80$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 76cpaid | +14%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Over | 50c | 77.69$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.23 | 636 | 45.1%287 W · 349 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 56c | 68.59$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.48 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd12f…e80dbacked Over | 78c | 64.1$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e0c…b90abacked Over | 41c | 60.98$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.98 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9013…e7e0backed Under | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 61 | 32.8%20 W · 41 L | -5.6wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd6c5…0d72backed Under | 41c | 47.02$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.32 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -2.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa87b…968bbacked Over | 32c | 46.88$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.88 | 78 | 25.6%20 W · 58 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6203…5544backed Over | 47c | 37.82$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.05 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22cc…8aeabacked Over | 52c | 31.91$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.32 | 100 | 51%51 W · 49 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked Over | 64c | 31.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.29 | 110 | 45.5%50 W · 60 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Over | 44c | 30.92$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.26 | 762 | 34.8%265 W · 497 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4683…683fbacked Over | 55c | 29.09$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.09 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.13per pick | 56cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1813…4dfebacked Under | 37c | 28.78$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 183 | 53%97 W · 86 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ce6…de1fbacked Over | 38c | 27.98$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.44 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -2.6wins | -0.14per pick | 26cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Eintracht Braunschweig vs. SV Darmstadt 98: O/U 2.5this page
- Eintracht Braunschweig vs. SV Darmstadt 98: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Eintracht Braunschweig vs. SV Darmstadt 98: O/U 1.5Over won
- Eintracht Braunschweig vs. SV Darmstadt 98: O/U 3.5Over won
- Eintracht Braunschweig vs. SV Darmstadt 98: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Eintracht Braunschweig (-1.5)SV Darmstadt 98 won
- Spread: SV Darmstadt 98 (-1.5)Eintracht Braunschweig won
- Spread: SV Darmstadt 98 (-2.5)Eintracht Braunschweig won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.