South American Leagues · resolved market
CF Cruz Azul vs. Atlético San Luis: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2f0138d52288bb8b593434607185ac9683691f080d8178d1d0deddc9525a2212
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,942
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,942 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8790…010bbacked Over | 69c | 2,610$1,798 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,798.05 | 212 | 51.9%110 W · 102 L | +14.3wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 31c | 882.33$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$608.81 | 1,328 | 57%757 W · 571 L | +57.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 44c | 614.18$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.28 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Over | 36c | 300.82$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.7 | 154 | 24%37 W · 117 L | -9.6wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -26%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9794…32c9backed Under | 64c | 213.37$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.81 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 64c | 162.14$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.84 | 1,985 | 44.8%890 W · 1,095 L | -44.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 27c | 154.77$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.53 | 1,038 | 49.4%513 W · 525 L | +14.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Under | 64c | 128.39$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.17 | 297 | 47.1%140 W · 157 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad18…0b4fbacked Over | 35c | 94.29$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 143 | 35.7%51 W · 92 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Over | 35c | 58$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 2,611 | 54.2%1,415 W · 1,196 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28e1…d4d9backed Over | 36c | 55.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.92 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeeb0…c9f8backed Over | 36c | 55.29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.22per pick | 51cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8549…41f8backed Over | 38c | 52.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 25 | 8%2 W · 23 L | -5.3wins | -0.21per pick | 29cpaid | -79.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xcd92…50a5backed Over | 36c | 51.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.72 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x739a…f78abacked Over | 36c | 50.77$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.28 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.24per pick | 59cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb76…7ffebacked Over | 35c | 44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 100 | 33%33 W · 67 L | -6.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…4d6ebacked Over | 48c | 39.75$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.08 | 133 | 35.3%47 W · 86 L | -14.9wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x60e8…50c2backed Under | 70c | 37.14$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.14 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa66f…f5a3backed Over | 35c | 29$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- CF Cruz Azul vs. Atlético San Luis: O/U 3.5this page
- CF Cruz Azul vs. Atlético San Luis: O/U 1.5Over won
- CF Cruz Azul vs. Atlético San Luis: O/U 2.5Over won
- CF Cruz Azul vs. Atlético San Luis: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: CF Cruz Azul (-1.5)CF Cruz Azul won
- Spread: CF Cruz Azul (-2.5)CF Cruz Azul won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.