South American Leagues · resolved market
CF Cruz Azul vs. Atlético San Luis: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xecf0398d01b96f4bc37f8521d8ec26ac55f23408baa0af62864a330f5c31a4b4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,808
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,808 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Under | 43c | 5,342$2,290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,290.26 | 165 | 43.6%72 W · 93 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…d7a0backed Over | 58c | 4,299$2,493 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,805.58 | 148 | 29.7%44 W · 104 L | -5.8wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 42c | 4,206$1,756 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,756.03 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Over | 57c | 2,621$1,499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,121.51 | 65 | 43.1%28 W · 37 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed Under | 44c | 2,011$885 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$884.84 | 166 | 47%78 W · 88 L | +11.8wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0def…4ddbbacked Over | 58c | 2,000$1,160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$839.97 | 41 | 63.4%26 W · 15 L | +4.5wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Over | 56c | 1,222$684 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$537.59 | 1,985 | 44.8%890 W · 1,095 L | -44.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd092…342abacked Over | 58c | 568.97$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.97 | 95 | 67.4%64 W · 31 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 64cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a92…6941backed Under | 5c | 539.31$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.97 | 144 | 43.1%62 W · 82 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Over | 60c | 499$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.6 | 154 | 24%37 W · 117 L | -9.6wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -26%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0d…b612backed Over | 58c | 381.79$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.79 | 166 | 56%93 W · 73 L | -5.8wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 42c | 306.28$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.64 | 3,405 | 51.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 41c | 286.39$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.01 | 2,388 | 51.8%1,237 W · 1,151 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb495…7c65backed Over | 65c | 250.73$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.62 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3123…b44dbacked Under | 56c | 250$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3880…ab7dbacked Over | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.82 | 126 | 45.2%57 W · 69 L | -10.7wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x07a0…7a80backed Over | 68c | 137.23$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.72 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf497…5ce0backed Over | 57c | 100$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 449 | 39.2%176 W · 273 L | -7.4wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Under | 32c | 88$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.89 | 100 | 58%58 W · 42 L | +6.7wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbf57…ecc4backed Under | 43c | 87.73$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.86 | 91 | 62.6%57 W · 34 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49ca…5944backed Over | 57c | 87.72$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.72 | 77 | 63.6%49 W · 28 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 56c | 86.43$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.03 | 378 | 51.3%194 W · 184 L | +7.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Over | 49c | 81.67$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.99 | 297 | 47.1%140 W · 157 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0644…05debacked Over | 57c | 77.44$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.3 | 135 | 48.9%66 W · 69 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56a8…3639backed Over | 61c | 65$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.35 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +2.7wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2c93…0fb8backed Under | 43c | 61.71$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.54 | 60 | 56.7%34 W · 26 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb76…7ffebacked Under | 39c | 54$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.06 | 100 | 33%33 W · 67 L | -6.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 46c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 836 | 42.9%359 W · 477 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60c2…8052backed Over | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 43 | 27.9%12 W · 31 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc253…5800backed Over | 61c | 48.81$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.81 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…4d6ebacked Over | 66c | 37.92$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.89 | 133 | 35.3%47 W · 86 L | -14.9wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x355c…81c5backed Over | 49c | 36.84$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.79 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x44b8…a2d7backed Over | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 66 | 54.5%36 W · 30 L | +9.0wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x518b…cf8abacked Over | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 58 | 56.9%33 W · 25 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b7f…7aecbacked Over | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd162…72aabacked Over | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 27 | 70.4%19 W · 8 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 64cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa488…91c3backed Under | 43c | 28$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.95 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 58cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd5f2…2512backed Over | 61c | 24.21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.44 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | +5.0wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- CF Cruz Azul vs. Atlético San Luis: O/U 2.5this page
- CF Cruz Azul vs. Atlético San Luis: O/U 1.5Over won
- CF Cruz Azul vs. Atlético San Luis: O/U 3.5Under won
- CF Cruz Azul vs. Atlético San Luis: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: CF Cruz Azul (-1.5)CF Cruz Azul won
- Spread: CF Cruz Azul (-2.5)CF Cruz Azul won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.