Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
South Alabama Jaguars vs. Arkansas State Red Wolves: O/U 150.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2f292860e69253681ce71ae33d1ba1ebf7c4ef10223dad2a3b12e4b081c7b87e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,511
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,520
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,511 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2537…bff9backed Under | 54c | 26,590$14,358 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,358.46 | 444 | 52.7%234 W · 210 L | +6.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 46c | 9,611$4,419 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,192.18 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4da…3175backed Over | 46c | 5,250$2,415 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,835 | 898 | 50%449 W · 449 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04d2…4c2cbacked Over | 46c | 4,217$1,940 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,277.39 | 157 | 48.4%76 W · 81 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Over | 46c | 4,200$1,932 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,268 | 841 | 47.4%399 W · 442 L | -13.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9f5…3e7abacked Over | 46c | 2,100$966 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,134 | 327 | 51.7%169 W · 158 L | +12.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa632…4c96backed Over | 48c | 937.5$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$487.5 | 564 | 44.1%249 W · 315 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a7…63e7backed Under | 55c | 800$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440 | 557 | 49.2%274 W · 283 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccf1…25a0backed Over | 45c | 780$351 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$429 | 441 | 46.5%205 W · 236 L | +7.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Under | 54c | 500$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 918 | 48.9%449 W · 469 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 46c | 451.8$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.97 | 5,946 | 49.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L | +163.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf7…06acbacked Under | 55c | 256.84$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.26 | 273 | 50.5%138 W · 135 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Over | 46c | 173$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.42 | 1,436 | 47.5%682 W · 754 L | -18.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x450b…11d7backed Over | 46c | 130.43$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.43 | 1,251 | 50.6%633 W · 618 L | +12.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Over | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.04 | 4,552 | 50.1%2,279 W · 2,273 L | -36.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Over | 52c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 1,667 | 36.4%607 W · 1,060 L | -4.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x622b…5a4abacked Over | 46c | 45$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.3 | 165 | 46.7%77 W · 88 L | +7.5wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc42c…42a1backed Over | 46c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 635 | 51.5%327 W · 308 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbda3…ef65backed Under | 55c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 627 | 53%332 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Over | 46c | 29.32$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.83 | 1,296 | 45.1%584 W · 712 L | -23.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 45c | 27.12$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.31 | 3,905 | 58.8%2,298 W · 1,607 L | +165.3wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 59c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.33 | 4,382 | 40.5%1,775 W · 2,607 L | +23.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- South Alabama Jaguars vs. Arkansas State Red Wolves: O/U 150.5this page
- South Alabama Jaguars vs. Arkansas State Red WolvesSouth Alabama Jaguars won
- South Alabama Jaguars vs. Arkansas State Red Wolves: O/U 149.5Over won
- South Alabama Jaguars vs. Arkansas State Red Wolves: O/U 151.5Over won
- Spread: Arkansas State Red Wolves (-6.5)South Alabama Jaguars won
- Spread: Arkansas State Red Wolves (-7.5)South Alabama Jaguars won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.