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Ncaa Basketball · resolved market

Spread: Arkansas State Red Wolves (-6.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
South Alabama Jaguarsof Arkansas State Red Wolves, South Alabama Jaguars
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$4,397
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$4,437

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,397 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet's whole record in Ncaa Basketball
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xee61…debfbacked South Alabama Jaguars47c2,291$1,071 inWon+$1,219.612,42249.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L+118.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x05b9…2adfbacked Arkansas State Red Wolves53c1,887$1,000 inLost-$1,00057248.1%275 W · 297 L-27.3wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-8.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6a32…0086backed Arkansas State Red Wolves54c999.99$540 inLost-$539.9922349.3%110 W · 113 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8461…c6e4backed Arkansas State Red Wolves54c611.09$330 inLost-$329.9918245.1%82 W · 100 L-15.9wins-0.09per pick54cpaid-15.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x57a8…6933backed South Alabama Jaguars46c416$191 inWon+$224.6474649.2%367 W · 379 L+1.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid+3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b20…99e9backed South Alabama Jaguars46c304.35$140 inWon+$164.3579448.9%388 W · 406 L+1.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfc8b…d3d6backed South Alabama Jaguars46c204.34$94 inWon+$110.330746.3%142 W · 165 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb88e…08f3backed South Alabama Jaguars48c175.21$84 inWon+$91.21837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.14per pick51cpaid-28.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked South Alabama Jaguars46c153.98$71 inWon+$83.151,66736.4%607 W · 1,060 L-4.0wins0.00per pick37cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked South Alabama Jaguars46c114.66$53 inWon+$61.924,38240.5%1,775 W · 2,607 L+23.7wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-6.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb0fd…e1f5backed Arkansas State Red Wolves55c100$55 inLost-$551,16255.2%641 W · 521 L+25.2wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x83ea…c2efbacked Arkansas State Red Wolves53c94.34$50 inLost-$5023054.3%125 W · 105 L+6.1wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd038…8f51backed Arkansas State Red Wolves54c39$21 inLost-$21.1220248%97 W · 105 L-9.8wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-14.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xac3f…1966backed South Alabama Jaguars47c29$14 inWon+$15.3725152.6%132 W · 119 L+0.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
  • The position was at least $10.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.