Valorant · resolved market
Valorant: Pigeons vs Shopify Rebellion Gold (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 2 Swiss Stage Group Stage
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2f43131ab87044f966f386892808d13dc8f58d3f7ffbdd8e06c45b488e75a7f9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Pigeonsof Pigeons, Shopify Rebellion Gold
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Valorantevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,756
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,043
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,756 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Valorant is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Valorant | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x697f…b756backed Shopify Rebellion Gold | 15c | 3,479$522 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$521.84 | 133 | 45.9%61 W · 72 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4762…ba70backed Shopify Rebellion Gold | 16c | 3,230$516 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$516 | 135 | 58.5%79 W · 56 L | +11.3wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…2c8bbacked Shopify Rebellion Gold | 17c | 2,390$397 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$397.18 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9919…f261backed Shopify Rebellion Gold | 16c | 1,466$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235 | 102 | 42.2%43 W · 59 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Shopify Rebellion Gold | 16c | 1,169$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.49 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd31…8004backed Shopify Rebellion Gold | 16c | 999.99$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 220 | 47.7%105 W · 115 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Shopify Rebellion Gold | 16c | 932.7$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.89 | 348 | 47.4%165 W · 183 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa2f0…3206backed Shopify Rebellion Gold | 16c | 616.36$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.29 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x819c…15b6backed Shopify Rebellion Gold | 16c | 576$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.16 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d83…a7d1backed Shopify Rebellion Gold | 16c | 575$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a35…6fe0backed Shopify Rebellion Gold | 20c | 499.99$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.6 | 156 | 42.3%66 W · 90 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Shopify Rebellion Gold | 17c | 300$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 702 | 51.3%360 W · 342 L | +7.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x596a…7a0fbacked Shopify Rebellion Gold | 20c | 300$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 544 | 39.9%217 W · 327 L | +12.7wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9808…32adbacked Shopify Rebellion Gold | 16c | 243$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.88 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6326…6329backed Shopify Rebellion Gold | 16c | 204.22$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 118 | 43.2%51 W · 67 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0a…7858backed Shopify Rebellion Gold | 10c | 189.86$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.99 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +2.5wins | +0.18per pick | 25cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5de7…5417backed Shopify Rebellion Gold | 16c | 150$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 236 | 44.9%106 W · 130 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e9c…ca4fbacked Shopify Rebellion Gold | 16c | 140$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37f8…b5e5backed Shopify Rebellion Gold | 16c | 137.01$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b3…437abacked Shopify Rebellion Gold | 16c | 137$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.92 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f12…3e35backed Shopify Rebellion Gold | 17c | 118$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.58 | 108 | 44.4%48 W · 60 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x588d…3f41backed Shopify Rebellion Gold | 17c | 118$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.06 | 98 | 45.9%45 W · 53 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa934…8b38backed Shopify Rebellion Gold | 18c | 104.87$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.82 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc187…efaabacked Shopify Rebellion Gold | 17c | 88.24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 55 | 61.8%34 W · 21 L | +4.1wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +22%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xed8f…5aa7backed Shopify Rebellion Gold | 16c | 85.7$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.71 | 57 | 28.1%16 W · 41 L | -6.7wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -29%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb342…c4ecbacked Shopify Rebellion Gold | 26c | 84.38$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.94 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf95e…1816backed Shopify Rebellion Gold | 17c | 74.37$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 78 | 55.1%43 W · 35 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc200…4873backed Shopify Rebellion Gold | 19c | 62.05$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40d2…312fbacked Pigeons | 79c | 36.57$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.68 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa74a…4893backed Pigeons | 77c | 27.95$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.49 | 347 | 39.8%138 W · 209 L | -13.7wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Valorant and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.