Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on August 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2f44b9521e19fcdb7ce8c140eeacd6ca9bb98cdfe52a3e3fcc49b230e8b678be
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,533
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,307
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,533 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0db3…547dbacked Yes | 0c | 9,441$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 173 | 52%90 W · 83 L | +9.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7a7…ecddbacked Yes | 3c | 877.6$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.99 | 47 | 12.8%6 W · 41 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0861…8e40backed Yes | 23c | 502.68$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.69 | 80 | 30%24 W · 56 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4829…97ebbacked Yes | 4c | 458.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 399 | 51.1%204 W · 195 L | +14.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a97…395bbacked Yes | 3c | 400$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.56 | 336 | 28.9%97 W · 239 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 4c | 382.82$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.37 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 4c | 309.34$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x438a…61c4backed No | 57c | 98.57$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.58 | 231 | 43.3%100 W · 131 L | +19.0wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 39c | 79.22$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.89 | 471 | 36.5%172 W · 299 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…cb59backed No | 67c | 62.26$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.41 | 495 | 43.6%216 W · 279 L | +31.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2753…e28abacked Yes | 35c | 56.93$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 420 | 61.2%257 W · 163 L | +19.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…bf4abacked Yes | 45c | 55.63$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 54 | 66.7%36 W · 18 L | +5.1wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x272e…3a34backed Yes | 27c | 53.76$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.38 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc756…0ec3backed Yes | 50c | 52.18$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.92 | 132 | 66.7%88 W · 44 L | +10.5wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb00f…3e60backed Yes | 42c | 45$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.96 | 79 | 55.7%44 W · 35 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 76c | 42$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.97 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbe…b95ebacked No | 64c | 41.86$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.22 | 419 | 66.6%279 W · 140 L | +36.9wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5787…1f86backed Yes | 50c | 40.35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 235 | 60%141 W · 94 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed54…4967backed No | 60c | 39.99$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 498 | 54.6%272 W · 226 L | +46.4wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x93ee…4806backed No | 65c | 38.15$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3bec…fe86backed No | 66c | 32.32$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c97…013bbacked No | 66c | 30.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.56 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +65.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…d572backed No | 69c | 26.72$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.41 | 374 | 65.2%244 W · 130 L | +23.4wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3c33…028ebacked Yes | 46c | 21.6$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f61…840abacked No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 375 | 70.7%265 W · 110 L | +62.7wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed No | 62c | 19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.26 | 539 | 25.6%138 W · 401 L | -18.4wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70a9…6f76backed No | 65c | 16.43$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.77 | 39 | 66.7%26 W · 13 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6326…773dbacked No | 78c | 15.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.48 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae00…c652backed No | 65c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.41 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -49%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7dc…c599backed No | 76c | 14.56$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.56 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +13%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on August 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C on August 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 31°C on August 6?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 32°C on August 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 33°C on August 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 34°C on August 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 35°C on August 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.